New York Red Bulls vs Columbus Crew Prediction: Playoff Battle Heats Up

On October 20, 2024, the New York Red Bulls host Columbus Crew in a high-stakes encounter in the Eastern Conference, with the MLS playoffs looming and neither side able to finish strongly. The two teams really couldn't take more contrasting routes into this fixture, with the Red Bulls having been on the hunt for consistency throughout the campaign, lying 7th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 11 wins, 14 draws, and 8 losses. On the other side, Columbus Crew are one of those flying high up with an impressive 2nd place secured with 18 wins, 9 draws, and 6 losses. Given that both teams are desperate to secure their spots in the playoffs, this match will be sure to be intense, physical, and tactically engaging.

The Red Bulls enter this game needing to reverse this trend after a pretty poor streak with only one win in the last five games, while managing 1W, 1D, and 3L. The previous game ended in a 2-1 away loss to Atlanta, in an outing marked by indiscipline that included a red card for Dylan Nealis. The Red Bulls have shown that they can be breached in defense as they have conceded in each of their last nine games, and their possession statistics often fall short, making them be under relentless pressure.

The Red Bulls are expected to revert to their high-energy, press-heavy approach irrespective of recent struggles. One does feel they would look to emphasize second balls to win and force some turnovers deep in the opposition half. Considering a close-to-bare squad with Nealis' suspension and a shaky defense, though, the aggressive pressing leaves them with a gap at the back when placed against a well-organized side such as Columbus. Possession has remained a headache, as the Red Bulls attained only 35% in their last outing; that speaks volumes of how they struggle to take control of the pace of the game. The team will likely resort to long balls-41% long passes against Atlanta-trying to bypass the midfield and catch Columbus on the break.

Meanwhile, Columbus Crew come into this game following a 4-0 thrashing of New England, a performance which showed how strong they can get both upfront and at the back. Though they have been in a patchy form over the last five games, 2W, 1D, 2L, Columbus holds the confidence of a top-tier team with a knack for controlling the game reflected in superior possession and big chances created.

The Columbus Crew's possession game and the setting of the tempo of the game work for them. Coming into this game, their tactical identity under coach Wilfried Nancy is rather methodical, with heavy build-up play, a high-pressing defense, and creating chances through quick transitions or short, incisive passes. Most recently, they out-possessed their opponents 56% and created five big chances to really attest to how efficient they are on offense. They are also solid in rear areas, as the main focus of the team is to win duels-58%-and maintain structure. So, considering New York struggles, Columbus will try to take advantage of such weaknesses, especially in wide areas and on counter-attacks.

The history has been close between the two teams, as Columbus came out on top in 10 of their last 20 meetings against New York, which won 6 times with 4 draws. Recent meetings have gone Columbus's way, as they managed a 3-0 home win in the last meeting in March 2024. The game continued a trend of high-scoring clashes between the sides, with over 2.5 goals coming in 6 of their last 7 meetings and both teams scoring - GG - in 6 of those 7 clashes. The Red Bulls have also conceded in each of the last 7 clashes with Columbus.

Another thing to notice is the disciplinary intensity of such contests. Indeed, the last five meetings have seen over 4.5 cards, testifying to the physical edge of the rivalry. Corners tend to be at a premium; under 10.5 corners have emerged in the last five clashes.

The Red Bulls go into this fixture with pressure. Recent performances of the team show a worrying trend of letting in early goals, having conceded first in 6 of their last 8 games. They seem fragile at the back, having conceded 9 in the last five games. They rarely create chances, having fashioned only 1 big chance in the last outing. Furthermore, their dependency on long balls at 41% and crosses at 40% could play to the hands of Columbus, considering the Crew's superior defensive organization.

Columbus Crew look likely to have the upper hand in this encounter. Ability to control the game and create chances-5 big chances against New England, and defensive discipline-0 yellow cards, 2 saves-will make them tough to break down. Their duel and defending stats are also indicative of a physical presence, perhaps enough to neutralize New York's press. With an attacking depth in the setup and some fine form, managing over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches, the Crew can be a handful to deal with, most especially against the porous Red Bulls backline.

• Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.6 Odds
• GG + Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.68 Odds
• Away DNB @ 2.10 Odds