New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United Prediction: Both sides will apply a cautious approach

The New York Red Bulls host Atlanta United in a critical clash in the Major League Soccer Eastern Conference at Red Bull Arena on September 22, 2024. The Red Bulls sit in 5th place, trying to lock up their playoff spot, while Atlanta United enters the match 11th, which is out of the playoff structure, though mathematically still alive to make a late charge for the playoffs. With both teams being in poor form, this is going to be a very unpredictable and intense encounter.

The New York Red Bulls are in something of a slump of late, not having won in six games. Last time out, they lost 2-1 to Chicago Fire despite having the better of the possession at 52%, but ultimately didn't have the cut-through in the final third as they managed only two shots on target. Their defense has been stable, keeping scores below 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches; however, they have developed a trend of falling behind first in most of their recent games. They haven't put away opponents, having the most draws this season-13 in conference-while losing three in their last five.

New York Red Bulls underlined their direct pressing style with a 4-4-2 formation in the last match against Chicago Fire. I'd expect the same approach, where NYRB maintains its focus on aggressive pressing and vertical passing. They lean heavily on long balls at 46% and crosses at 26%, suggesting a more route-one way of breaking down defenses. Their strength in duels, with 52%, and defense, having won 50% of tackles, suggests they will look to disrupt Atlanta's possession-based play and force errors high up the pitch. However, without many goals and relying on individual brilliance, such as the goal from Dennis Gjengaar last time out, means their biggest test is creating enough quality chances.

For its part, Atlanta United are just as inconsistent, with only one victory in their last five games. The latest result-a 2-2 tie against Inter Miami at home-offered some positives offensively, as Saba Lobjanidze and Aleksei Miranchuk scored. However, the Five Stripes have been porous at the back, conceding goals far too easily. Similar to the Red Bulls, they often fall short of making games their own; they have only had 8 wins this season with a very concerning total of 13 losses.

The Atlanta players do prefer to play in a more fluid, possession-based style, as testified by the 48% of possession that they had against Inter Miami, playing out a 2-2 draw. Thus, they are likely to lean heavily on their ability to move the ball up by quick combinations and exploit any spaces that the Red Bulls might allow with their high pressing. Big chances are a strong point of Atlanta, and they had 3 such in their last match, while players like Lobjanidze and Miranchuk have the capability of decisive contribution. Their weaknesses lay in the domain of defensive duels and tackles, where they win only 36% of their tackles, which makes them quite vulnerable when defending transitions. They have to be compact and not allow Red Bulls opportunities from turnovers.

New York Red Bulls have had an excellent home record against Atlanta United. In the last encounter between the two teams, New York Red Bulls managed a 4-0 win over Atlanta United in June 2023. Normally, New York Red Bulls boss the head-to-head games with a win record of 10 while Atlanta United comes second with a total of 2 wins. Such psychological advantage intermingled with home advantage may prove to be a game-changer in this match.

The New York Red Bulls have an excellent home record against Atlanta United, taking the last match 4-0 in June 2023 and generally dominating the head-to-head series 10 wins to Atlanta's 2. This might be a psychological edge that, with home advantage, plays an important role.

Both teams, however, enter this game in poor form. The tendency of the Red Bulls not to win, despite high work rates evidenced through their 52% duels won and strong defensive numbers, would suggest they struggle in the final third. Atlanta, meanwhile, will be hoping to exploit such weaknesses, though their own frailties at the back make this a tough task on the road where they've struggled for consistency.

Both teams have strong tendencies to concede first; given that both sides have recent games with under 2.5 goals and relatively low corners, this game is likely to be cagey and low-scoring, one in which set pieces and individual brilliance could decide the outcome.

• Under 3 Goals @ 1.796 Odds
• Full Time Draw @ 4.00 Odds
• Under 10 Corners @ 1.80 Odds