New York City vs Cincinnati FC Prediction: Both teams to find the back of the net

New York City FC welcome FC Cincinnati on October 3rd, 2024, in what will be a crucial Major League Soccer match as both teams scramble for playoff positioning in the Eastern Conference. NYCFC is currently 5th with 12 wins, 8 draws, and 11 losses, while Cincinnati is holding the 3rd spot with 17 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses. The two teams enter this match from opposite ends of results, with NYCFC thrashing neighbors NY Red Bulls 5-1 and Cincinnati facing a 2-1 home defeat against LAFC. In Yankee Stadium, the match might just become a real cracker, with these two sides showing much tendency to let through goals with ease, while the playoffs are around the corner, meaning every point comes in handy.

NYCFC comes into this match with just the morale booster they needed, having destroyed local rivals NY Red Bulls 5-1 in an impressive away performance. Although in inconsistent form in the last five games-1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses-the win showcased their attacking potential. In that match, NYCFC had five big chances, and the 4-4-2 formation provided balance between defense and offense. However, they've had difficulty at the back, leaking 10 goals in their last 5 games. Home advantage could be important as NYCFC have been tough to beat on home soil, though their defense will need to be tighter against an in-form Cincinnati attack.

NYCFC recently adopted a 4-4-2 formation that really worked in their 5-1 victory, being direct in attack and compact in midfield. Their reliance on wingers and crosses was evident by the fact that 44% of their passes came from wide areas in the last game. The ability to win duels in midfield-48%-and tackles-57%-will again be important in trying to break up Cincinnati's play. Their defense still looks leaky, especially on counterattacks, which pacey forwards Cincinnati could be using to their advantage. NYCFC, meanwhile, would probably try to strike first, as they had in five of their last seven matches, in order to put pressure on the visitors.

FC Cincinnati is higher up in the table, coming off a disappointing 2-1 loss to LAFC, though generally have been in solid form with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five. This 3-4-1-2 shape has provided Cincinnati control of the game--in terms of possession--and an ability to play out of the back: 62% vs LAFC. They remain one of the most dangerous teams in transition, but defensive lapses have haunted them of late, conceding three goals across their last two matches. Cincinnati has historically been good against NYCFC too, claiming five straight H2H wins and going unbeaten in seven.

The 3-4-1-2 set-up has allowed Cincinnati to dominate possession while keeping their wide men highly up the pitch. Such an ability to control the game was evident in their 62% possession against LAFC, where defensive fragility on transition was exposed. Defensively, Cincinnati will be reliant on their three central defenders as a strong tackle success rate-69% last game-provides a solid foundation. Creating pressure from Cincinnati will be a concern for NYCFC, as they have really struggled to build play from the back when under pressure. The transitional moments will also be where the focus falls on, offensively.

Historically, Cincinnati have dominated this fixture of late, going on to win the last five encounters and staying unbeaten in seven including a 4-2 win in their last meeting in the Leagues Cup back in August 2024.

NYCFC has historically been very strong at home, but they have been leaking in the back, conceding in each of their last eight matches against Cincinnati. On the other hand, Cincinnati has been great on the road, and the ability to open the score in 7 of their last 8 games takes a psychological edge into the game. The tactical clash between NYCFC's 4-4-2 and Cincinnati's 3-4-1-2 will probably come down to who gets control of midfield and transitions quicker.

This will be an important match in the playoff race with both sides firmly in it. Confidence will be sky-high for NYCFC after a big derby win, but recent dominance in this fixture and Cincinnati's consistency this season might play a key psychological role. Often this season, NYCFC has fallen behind first, and perhaps there is some pressure if that happens again.

• Over 3 Goals @ 1.856 Odds
• GG (Yes) + Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.68 Odds
• Correct Score 2-2 @ 12.00 Odds