New England Revolution vs DC United Prediction: Both teams are poor defensively

New England Revolution come into the crucial MLS Eastern Conference match on 6th October 2024, against DC United. Both of them are having a rough season in the bottom, tied in 14th place with a similar record of 9W-4D-18L. Pride is all that they will be playing for in this game now that any aspirations of playoffs are gone. New England will have the advantage of home support, yet their recent form has been pretty poor, while DC United have had some resilience in their last five games. This is going to be an encounter that promises goals, as both sides have been involved in high-scoring matches recently.

New England has been on a bit of a poor streak of late, with one win in their last five. In their last outing, they lost 2-1 to Houston Dynamo, using the 4-2-3-1 formation. For that matter possession was nearly evenly split between them, but their defense has been porous lately, failing to keep sheets clean and conceding first in five of their last seven matches. The chips are down, and they have usually depended on long balls and crosses tactically, while defensively they have been inconsistent in duels and tackling.

New England favors a 4-2-3-1 formation. Width is important to them; full-backs and wingers are usually called upon to provide crosses into the box. They are not very good at maintaining possession since they usually commit with long balls to transit from rear guard to attack. They have been inconsistent in their defensive setup, losing many duels, especially in midfield, and that invites pressure through counterattacks. New England, having such crucial tactical weaknesses in the form of defensive organization, needs to definitely sharpen up to avoid conceding early, as has been often repetitive.

Meanwhile, DC United comes into this game off of a pulsating 4-3 win over Nashville SC, adopting a 3-4-2-1 formation. They have been decent in the recent run: two wins and two draws in their last five games. However, they leak goals since their defense has conceded a total of eight goals in the last five games. They have been quite aggressive on the attacking front too-meaning, they have created a lot for themselves and have scored quite well, but that holds little good with an insecure backline.

DC United's shape of 3-4-2-1 affords them a strong base in the midfield, where they are capable of sustaining possession and utilizing their wide midfielders to open up the wings. They build up through the back in a very methodical manner, gradually working their way up the pitch. This tactic, however, also has its downside, as it exposes them to transition moments-especially on counterattacks. Their defensive positioning of three at the back was very poor, with too many slow close downs on attackers, which explains their rate of goals conceded. Of course, the biggest threat remains going forward because DC United often deploys a rather fluid attacking unit capable of creating multiple big chances.

Traditionally, New England has had the edge in this fixture, winning 11 of the 20 matches played, while DC United has five victories, and four have ended in draws. In their last meeting in February of 2024, United won 3-1 at home, showing its attack is quite capable of scoring goals. The head-to-head record also suggests that this fixture usually sees goals, with the last seven encounters producing six matches with over 2.5 goals, and five of those seeing both teams score. DC United has conceded in their last 14 matches against New England, further supporting the likelihood of a high-scoring affair.

Both teams are in terrible form, as DC United somehow have managed to dig out two wins in their last five games against just one from New England. Defensively, they have been leaky: New England has been exposed in transition, and United have struggled for positional discipline in their back three. That could be the key to this match, as to which side takes better chances since both teams tend to give away goals.

That New England is at home does give them a slight edge, yet one cannot ignore the fact that they fritter away leads and rarely offer defensive solidity. For these reasons, they are even somewhat vulnerable at home. With an attack that has run on a bit more consistent lines, DC United may exploit those very weaknesses of their opponents, but all the same, given their own poor defense, they too can concede just as easily.

Given recent form, head-to-head statistics, and tactical setup, this is likely to be a high-scoring match. These teams have been part of over 2.5 goals in matches in the past weeks. Neither defense has looked good enough to keep a clean sheet probably.

• Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.6 Odds
• GG + Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.65 Odds
• Over 3 Goals @ 1.850 Odds