New England Revolution vs CF Montreal Prediction: The bookies have overrated New England

Thursday’s MLS matchup between the New England Revolution and CF Montreal sees two sides that have been inconsistent all season lock horns. Both teams are in dire need of points, with New England 15th in the Eastern Conference, while the team from Montreal is a shade better at 12th. With the playoff race slowly slipping away, this game is pivotal in determining whether either team can lock up some momentum as the final stretch of the regular season approaches.

New England has really struggled in the last weeks, managing to win only one game in the last five. Inconsistency is noted within the team performance, especially in its defense that always seems to leak goals, as was seen in their last outing-a comprehensive 3-0 loss to Orlando City. They have struggled to maintain defensive solidity and fluidity in attack, often looking disjointed.

Key stats here include Under 2.5 goals in five of their last seven, under 4.5 cards in five of their last six games, and under 10.5 corners in five of their last six-all evidence of a conservative approach to the game that doesn't lend itself to a lot of scoring opportunities. They have, however, despite their general, defensive-minded approach, struggled against those sides who go about building an early rhythm with efficient finishing.

The New England team has pretty much stuck with a 4-2-3-1 formation that offers defensive cover through two holding midfielders, with the effect of not creating enough goal-scoring opportunities. This recent game against Orlando saw them dominate possession-46%-but once again couldn't convert it. They only had two shots on target from their three big chances.

New England performs well in physical duels and tackles, showing respectably high 64% of won defensive tackles in the last match, but poor maintaining of possession in key areas of the field and transition fast from defense to attack has always managed to pull them back from doing well. They also play a large amount of long balls-70%, as well as crosses-20%, which are searching for short cuts by bypassing the midfield in search of quick breaks, but it is working lately.

Coming off the back of just two wins in their last five games, the prior win against Charlotte FC gives an idea of what Montreal could bring into this game. In that tie, Montreal had seemed to have finally found their attacking flair, as a Bryce Duke and a Caden Clark goal proved enough to seal the three points. A 59% control of possession with big chances created at 4 offers insight into how this team can finally find some rhythm offensively.

Although Montreal has underperformed this season, there have been moments when their attacking players, like Duke, have shown they can flip the balance of the game. The extreme disparity in styles-Montreal relies on possession, New England on long balls-might provide at least some opportunities for Montreal to change the weight of the match.

Montreal generally sets up in a 3-4-2-1 shape. The emphasis here will be on width and possession control. This shape allowed them to have fast transitions and make good use of the wings, not least from the fullbacks, in their last game, who provided extra width in the attack. Montréal is more comfortable on the ball than New England, with higher completion rate, and generally better stats on possession.

The defensive side has also been resilient for Montreal, as they have won 69% of their defensive tackles and duels. High press and aggressive recoveries of the ball will be very important against a New England that doesn't handle protracted pressure very well. The battle in central midfield will be key to who controls the tempo, with players such as Bryce Duke pivotal in linking up defense and attack.

The historical record between the two sides is weighted quite heavily to New England, who have managed to win 13 of the 20 meetings between the sides. Montreal, though, will be keen on revenge from their recent 5-0 thrashing by New England in August, a result that is still rather fresh. That game saw New England dominate proceedings away from home, but recent form indicates Montreal may be better equipped this time around.

Notably, these teams normally have goal-ridden matches, as 8 of the last 10 matches between them have had over 2.5 goals.

This sets up a fascinating tactical match-up, with New England's 4-2-3-1 taking on Montreal's 3-4-2-1. The use of long balls and wide play from New England has often been relied upon, something that might be harder to come by against Montreal's possession-heavy three-man defense. Montreal will look for midfield dominance through Bryce Duke and Caden Clark, looking to the wings for width, while New England might find success in how well they can transition from defense into attack via long balls and counter-attacks.

New England needs to be aware of the superior creation by Montreal and the possession held, while Montreal needs to be aware of the direct play and set-piece threat that New England presents.

• GG (No) @ 2.39 Odds
• Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.6 Odds
• Away Win or Draw @ 1.95 Odds