Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati Prediction: Cincinnati will escape defeat narrowly

On September 22nd, 2024, Nashville SC will host a critical MLS Eastern Conference game with FC Cincinnati. Both teams enter this match with different goals and form. Nashville, 12th in the conference, is desperate to stay in playoff contention, while Cincinnati stands in 2nd place as it continues to pursue the top spot in the standings.

Results are important on both sides, as Nashville needs to build momentum and bank as many points as possible if it's to shore up its precarious position in the league, while Cincinnati seeks to consolidate a place among the best teams in the league and extend the undefeated streak.

Nashville SC's season has been very inconsistent, with an 8W-8D-13L record. In the last five games, they have managed to win two and lose three, showing streaks of struggle amidst flashes of brilliance. The last game Nashville played was against the Chicago Fire, which was a scrappy 1-0 win; they showed more defensive grit but limited attacking potency. That was a poor attack by Nashville, with only 39% possession, creating no big chances and just two shots on target, before relying on a Sam Surridge goal to win them the game.

Tactically, Nashville comes into shape in a 4-3-1-2, relying on a sound defensive structure while attempting to hit on the counter. The practical approach here is playing long balls at 61% and with crosses at 50%, looking to skip midfield buildup and wide opportunities. On the other hand, the inefficiency in duels, at 47%, and disciplinary issues, at 5 yellow cards, reflect the physical and reactive nature of their gameplay.

Nashville have been the embodiment of defensive solidity, as five of their last six games have come in with under 2.5 goals. The ability to defend and then see out low-scoring games can be frustrating to opponents, especially those who enjoy ball possession-just like in their recent win over Chicago.

They do not have any bite in their attack; they did not create any big chances in the last game. They tend to concede first in six of their last eight games, which showed they are always vulnerable when chasing the game. Also, discipline may be a problem because frequent fouling and yellow cards may disrupt their rhythm.

Nashville is most likely to come into this game very defensive and counter-attacking, just as was the case in their last outing. This 4-3-1-2 setup is supposed to focus on sitting deep, soaking up the pressure, and making quick attacks with long balls and crosses. They will have limited plays for possession, so the hope will be to capitalize on some set pieces or mistakes from Cincinnati. Sam Surridge will be the focal point in attack, supported by midfielders making late runs into the box.

Defensively, Nashville will try to annoy the creative players of Cincinnati by maintaining their shape, using well-timed tackles and clearances, and eliminating any long period of pressure.

FC Cincinnati have been one of the top-performing sides in the Eastern Conference this season with a 17W-4D-8L record. They have won two, drawn once, and lost twice in the last five matches, indicating mixed form. They come into this fixture on the back of a gritty 2-1 away win against Minnesota United, where they were slightly more dominant in possession with 54% and created two big chances.

At almost all times, Cincinnati adopt a more tactical approach under coach Pat Noonan in a 3-4-1-2 system that allows flexibility in both attack and defense. In such a shape, they have been able to dominate midfield, while the wing-backs provide width. 67% success rate in defensive tackles, along with good discipline-less than 4.5 cards in five of their last seven games-means they are well-balanced between aggression and control.

Cincinnati's great strength lies in attack, with many sources for goals. Guys like Yuya Kubo and Luca Orellano, who scored in the last match, can be relied upon. Strong at the back also, the high tackle success rate of 67%, along with discipline on the field that keeps them out of foul trouble, has been impressive. Currently on a three-game unbeaten streak, which underlines their resilience.

The thing is, Cincinnati do tend to leak some goals - conceded in their last three games. And this may be a worry, especially because they give Nashville the impetus of an early goal, as has been the case in a recent set of H2H meetings between them. Furthermore, Cincinnati relies heavily on long balls - 46%, and might struggle to break down a team bunkering to soak the pressure, like Nashville.

Historically, Nashville has the upper hand in this fixture, with six wins in 11 meetings, while Cincinnati has come out on top three times and two matches have ended all square. The other fact that could give Nashville psychological confidence going into this match is that they have come out on top in the most recent encounter between the teams, a 2-0 away win back in May of this year.

Nashville will most likely come out in the same defensive, counter-attacking setup as last week. In a 4-3-1-2, the focus is on sitting deep and just absorbing pressure while releasing quick attacks with long balls and crosses. With limited attacking play through possession, they will hope to pop up with goals on set pieces or through Cincinnati mistakes. Sam Surridge will be the focal point in the attack, joined inside the box by midfield runners who come in late. Defensively, Nashville will look to frustrate Cincinnati's creative men by keeping their shape and relying on well-timed tackles and clearances to alleviate any sustained pressure.

In their 3-4-1-2 setup, Cincinnati will look to dominate possession and use their wing-backs to stretch Nashville's defensive lines. There might be a few overloads in midfield that would result in a bit of free space for Kubo and Orellano. Their long ball percentage - 46% - points to the possibility of trying to bypass Nashville's midfield and directly feeding their forwards.

Cincinnati will also have to be guarded against Nashville's counterattacks, making sure their back three is solid whenever they push numbers forward. Their high tackle success rate of 67% may give them the abilities to control the tempo and break down Nashville's reactive style.

• Away Win/Draw & Under 4.5 Goals @ 1.64 Odds
• GG (Yes) @ 1.62 Odds
• Correct Score 1-1 @ 6.50 Odds