Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire Prediction: Nashville have the slight edge

Nashville SC and Chicago Fire will go head-to-head in one of the most important Major League Soccer matches on September 19th, 2024. Nashville sits 14th in the standings in the bottom half of the Eastern Conference, while Chicago is just above them in 13th place. This match means a lot to the playoff hopes of each, since the matches remaining this regular season are very few. Nashville enter this match on the back of a rare win, while hosts Chicago will want to build on their win in the previous round against the New York Red Bulls. This has all the ingredients of a very closely-fought match as the teams are so close in the table and neither of them has particularly strong recent form.

Convinely unconvincing of late, the lone win this season that Nashville has mustered up is the one against Atlanta. That win should, however, count for something. Not exactly dominant but clinical, Nashville made full use of the chances they created against Atlanta. This season, the team has struggled offensively, and they have tended towards low-scoring games, as evident from the fact that four of their last five matches have ended with under 2.5 goals. Capable at times, they can also be quite vulnerable at the back, having conceded first in six of their last seven outings. The critical figure for their attack is Hany Mukhtar, who usually looks to give breadth to his attacks with moments of brilliance to unlock opposing defenses. Nashville are unlikely to change anything in this situation and stick with the familiar 4-2-3-1 formation: be reliable at the back and try to get something out of counter-attacks and set pieces, as usual. Hany Mukhtar will play in the attacking midfielder role; Alex Muyl and a striker are expected to seal the few opportunities which the team manages to create.

Nashville depends a lot on long balls, as evidenced in the 56% completion rate in their last game, meaning they will try to avoid the midfield tussle by going behind Chicago's back three with direct balls. The physicality in their approach is reflected in the good duel-winning rate of 56%, and, importantly, the solidity in their defending, where they came out tops in 73% of the tackles in the last game.

Their main problem is to stay focused at the back since it is hard for them to resist conceding an early goal. Having kept a clean sheet in four of the last five head-to-head meetings against Chicago, the focus will probably be on a compact and organized backline.

Chicago Fire also tend to be eccentric in their recent form, with a single win in the last five games. Their 2-1 win over the Red Bulls tends to showcase that even on lower possession, they can capitalize on big chances. Chicago's games tend to be open and high-scoring, as evidenced by their recent streak of seven in a row seeing over 2.5 goals scored. It also shows that the team has conceded in each of those seven matches, a potential defensive frailty that Nashville could try to exploit. Another of Chicago's tendencies is its tendency to start games slow, losing the first half and needing a strong second-half performance to come back.

They need to go back to the dynamic 3-4-3 that usually gives them a solid platform for wing-play and overlaps from the wide midfielders. Chicago Fire has a much better ball retention capacity compared to Nashville, having enjoyed 48% possession in their last outing against NY Red Bulls. They are strong in creating good, quality opportunities, as was seen in the four big chances they had against NY Red Bulls, though their finishing has sometimes let them down.

Where the Fire has been really poor is in their defensive structure, where the team has conceded seven times in as many games. Their back three could struggle to cope with Nashville's directness, most especially on counter-attacks. In any case, their high duel-winning rate in defense-90% tackles won in the last match-suggests they can be resilient, especially in one-on-one situations.

The Nashville and Chicago Fire head-to-head is a well-balanced record, with two wins each, supplemented by two draws. This means neither of these sides has managed to assert some form of historical dominance over the other.

Less than 4.5 yellow cards had been shown in five out of the last six meetings; this proposes it to be highly tactical rather than highly physical or aggressive.

This is including the clean sheets Nashville has been able to keep in four of their last five meetings with Chicago, showing just how tight their defensive approach is when up against the Fire.

Games between the sides have generally been low-scoring, with Nashville often going into a more defensive setup as most games have stayed under 2.5 goals, reflecting a tendency for tight matches.

Despite Chicago's recent trend for high-scoring games, Nashville's tendency to grind out low-scoring results-under 2.5 goals in four of their last five-may neuter Chicago's open style. The Nashville defense has been more disciplined, and Chicago struggles to break down organized defenses. Expect a tight match with few goals.

Bearing in mind that Nashville recently won and Chicago usually lets their opponents score the first goal-as they have lost the opening half in four of their last five games-the chances of Nashville opening the scorecard are high. It is most likely a goal to be conceded by Nashville out of their reliance on set pieces and transitional attacks against Chicago's backline, which tends to be vulnerable.

Both teams are quite disciplined for the fouls and cards as well. Only one of Nashville's last five head-to-head matches with Chicago has seen over 4.5 cards. With that, the probable trend is that both teams are tactically built to play rather than try to physically fight out the game.

Taking that into consideration, adding the home advantage, Nashville will come into this match as slight favorites. While Chicago Fire have the attacking tools to compete with Nashville, defensive problems coupled with conceding early might cost them. It should be a tight game, but expect Nashville to edge it 1-0 or 2-1.

• Home to Score First @ 1.81 Odds
• Home Win/Draw & Under 4.5 Goals @ 1.6 Odds
• Home Win @ 2.10 Odds