Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City SC Prediction: LAFC will win here

On October 3, 2024, LAFC take on St. Louis City in what will be a potentially goal-filled MLS Western Conference match. Currently, LAFC sits in second position with a record of 15 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, while St. Louis City is 12th position, struggling with 7 wins, 13 draws, and 11 losses. Both teams come into this match in contrasting positions of the league, but both have been resilient to some degree in recent games. LAFC is trying to stay top-two in the league, while St. Louis City is trying to remain relevant with a dwindling number of games left this season.

Recent form and tactical approaches of both teams, despite LAFC's superior league standing, would suggest this matchup could be more evenly balanced than the table would lead one to believe. LAFC comes fresh off a morale-boosting 2-1 away win against Cincinnati.

The 3-4-3 format has been a very dynamic shape for LAFC in recent years, allowing them to dominate wide areas while being super compact centrally. This shape works with fast counterattacks and solid transitions from defense to attack. The three-man defense brings stability, especially against teams who press high up the pitch, like St. Louis City, with the energy from midfield. Against Cincinnati last round, LAFC had just 38% possession in a game that suggested they would far rather hit teams on the counter than dominate the ball. They fashion just one big chance, but were clinical in putting away what few opportunities they did have with six shots on target out of a total of seven.

Some strong points in LAFC's squad are winning duels, at 54%, and solid defending-evidenced by the fact that they won 57% of their tackles against Cincinnati. However, they have let in goals in the last five games, which suggests one or two lapses in concentration negate generally sound tactical organization. They will likely attempt to use this against St. Louis City, who have a bad habit of letting in early goals-particularly through transition play using their wing-backs and front three.

St. Louis City moved past Sporting KC at home in a 3-1 win in their last outing.

St. Louis City has often deployed an extremely structured 4-4-2 setup, focusing on the efficiency of direct play. They recorded 47% possession in their last outing against Sporting Kansas City, which showed how much balance they have, given that they were never afraid to play on the front foot, yet also absorbed pressure at times. Notably, they also fashioned two big chances and showed efficiency by scoring three times-a sign that they may be ruthless whenever they get those opportunities.

St. Louis is good at duels and will need to make some crucial defending tackles to counter the press game of LAFC, with the team boasting a 60% success rate in the duel; they won 79% of their defending tackles in their last game. Defensively, they have been porous, leaking 14 goals in their last five matches, while their attack has been more consistent, having scored in 10 straight games. St Louis tend to thrive in chaotic, high-scoring affairs, and their streak of "both teams to score" - GG - in 10 games on the spin means they are likely to score and concede in this one.

The history between LAFC and St. Louis City is relatively short but already competitive. They have faced each other four times, with LAFC coming out on top with 2 wins, St. Louis having secured 1 victory, and 1 match ending in a draw. Their last encounter was in May of 2024 when LAFC secured a solid 2-0 away win. That victory was a testament to the tactical powers of LAFC to choke the attacking game of Saint Louis City and exploit the visitors' fleeting defensive lapses.

Some emerging key patterns from their head-to-head matches have been that LAFC has generally been more dominant, especially when playing at home. That solitary win for St Louis City in a close encounter proved they could be dangerous when the chips fall on their day, but the defensive organization and attacking flair of LAFC have usually been sufficient to attain positive results.

Both teams go into this match on the back of positive results, but their playing styles and recent form create some interesting contrasts. For all their lofty league position, LAFC have shown some real defensive lapses of late, conceding in five consecutive games. St Louis City have been involved in high-scoring games of late, as they've conceded 14 times in their last five but have still managed to score consistently.

Given LAFC's ability to exploit teams with fast transitions and St. Louis City's struggles in defense, this could be one of those games that yield a number of opportunities for the home team, especially if they use the wide spaces amply. St. Louis City will be banking on their physicality and direct approach to expose the defensive weaknesses of LAFC-especially on transition.

The last head-to-head between these two sides saw LAFC emerge victors 2-0 away from home back in May 2024. A lot, however, has changed for both teams. LAFC has been more conservative in their style, while the unpredictable form of St Louis City makes them dangerous opposition despite their lower league standing.

• GG (Yes) @ 1.6 Odds
• Home Win + Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Odds
• Correct Score 3-1 @ 11.00 Odds