Los Angeles FC vs Austin FC Prediction: LAFC should be comfortable at home despite struggles

Los Angeles FC welcome Austin FC to town in a vital MLS Western Conference fixture on September 19, 2024. The current second-placed team in the Western Conference, LAFC has endured a campaign characterized by consistency, although they have slipped up of late, not recording victory in their last three outings. On the other hand, Austin FC are having a pretty turbulent campaign and sit 11th in the conference, still in playoff hunt territory.

This is a very crucial fixture for both teams as the season draws to an end. Despite sitting high up in the league, LAFC needs to get back on track since a string of poor recent form may see them lose some crucial playoff seeding, whereas Austin FC faces an uphill task in trying to make the playoffs. Both sides lost their last matches, so this could be redemption time.

LAFC have been in pretty inconsistent form lately, going back to only one win in the last five matches, 1W, 1D, 3L. The team heads into this match on the back of a disappointing 4-2 defeat against their rivals LA Galaxy. The defensive issues were well evident as LAFC struggled to maintain the ball-just 36% of possession-and gave up four big chances to Galaxy despite creating the same amount themselves. Putting all that into consideration, a big factor in that defeat was the red card handed to Lewis O'Brien, which left LAFC with 10 men on the field and may affect squad rotation, possibly tactics too, going into Austin.

Typically this season, LAFC have played in a 4-3-3 system with a huge emphasis on transitional pace, wide play, and exploiting the individual brilliance of attackers like Denis Bouanga and Mateusz Bogusz. In Dallas, having had a low amount of possession, they managed five shots on target, showing their capacity to be dangerous on the break. It is at the back, though, that the team has struggled defensively, recording an unusually low duel and tackle win percentage over recent matches: 40% duels won, 77% defending tackles won indicate susceptibility to pressure.

LAFC will look to dominate the wide areas through Denis Bouanga and the pace of their wingers. Considering some of Austin's defensive mistakes that include poor handling of crosses and transitions, LAFC will look to expose them as quickly as possible into space. Pressing the defense of Austin into mistakes with their high-energy front three is another option for LAFC.

Meanwhile, Austin FC has been inconsistent; it managed to win 2 and lose three of the last five matches. The last time out, they lost 2-1 away against Toronto FC. They had 51% of ball possession and a weak defence which had let in two goals. Though they created five big chances against Toronto, the offensive department has been inconsistent all season.

Like LAFC, Austin also bases its style on a 4-3-3 setup but has not been solid in defense, especially away from home. Indeed, their 50% duel success rate and 56% defending tackles won present an increment on LAFC's solidity, but they still do remain vulnerable to quick, dynamic sides like LAFC. Forwards, Austin will look to capitalize on the lapses in LAFC's defense. Owen Wolff, scorer of the last game, could be pivotal again with his link-up play and late runs into the box.

Austin FC will seek to come into this match with caution and firm up the back. Having Owen Wolff pull the strings from midfield, they will seek to counterattack and capitalize on any recent defensive instability from LAFC. Set pieces could be another key area to look at, as in recent weeks LAFC has shown some vulnerability from such situations.

For LAFC, history is deeply on the side of these two teams, with seven wins out of ten meetings, while Austin has won twice with one draw. LAFC has remained unbeaten in the last five matches against Austin, once dominant at home. Indeed, LAFC won the last meeting 2-0 in the League Cup as far back as August 24, 2024. Over history, LAFC gets off to a good start, scoring first in four of the last five meetings against Austin and often wins the first half.

Given that LAFC has scored first in four of the last five meetings and Austin's frailties at the back, expect early action from LAFC.

This game will probably have many goals, as both teams usually show certain weaknesses in defending, while in 6 of their last 8 games, there was always over 2.5 goals.

While LAFC has a good home record, despite not being in the best of forms, Austin has historically been dominated in this fixture. A win at home does look likely for Austin given their poor form away from home.

• Home Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.6 Odds
• Home Win & Over 2.5 Goals at 1.83 Odds
• Denis Bouanaga to Score Anytime @ 1.80 Odds