FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew Prediction: A cagey derby looms

The highly-anticipated MLS encounter between FC Cincinnati and Columbus Crew on September 15, 2024, will be action-packed. With a tie atop the Eastern Conference between these two and one other team, there is much at stake in this positioning matchup with the final stretch of the regular season at hand. Cincinnati is currently 2nd, having gone through a pretty good season, while Columbus Crew sits in 3rd place and will be desperate for a rebound after such disappointment in the loss against Seattle. Their closeness in the table and recent form makes the Ohio Derby between both sides one that will be closely contested.

FC Cincinnati comes into this match following a dominant 4-1 home win over Montreal, which further restored their lost confidence after a few patchy displays. With an overall record of 16 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, Cincinnati is one of the top title contenders in the league. Even with their higher performance this season, they have shown some defensive vulnerabilities, as they have conceded in each of their last five matches. They tend to start slowly, too, since in four of the last five matches, they have conceded first.

Cincinnati's approach to the game with a 3-4-1-2 structure is all about finding a balance between being solid at the back and flamboyant in front. Its wing-backs are very key in transitions, offering width and crossing opportunities while helping out in defense. In their previous game against Montreal, Cincinnati showed great flexibility in their attack, where they managed six shots on target and had multiple scorers. While that may have looked pretty good on the surface, Cincinnati dominated possession for 56% of the game yet demonstrated clear defensive weaknesses, having conceded in five straight matches.

Improvement of their defense, especially in the opening phases of the game, considering they have conceded first quite often, will be key to their success. Their tendency to win 54% of duels shows that they are decent in physicality, but against a Columbus team strong in long balls and quick transitions, Cincinnati needs to be alert.

On the other hand, Columbus Crew will try to rebound from a stunning 4-0 home defeat to Seattle Sounders. Coming into that loss, Columbus was on a four-match winning streak and one of the hottest teams in the league. Entering the match at 14-7-5, which has kept them consistent in the season. Columbus has indeed been very clinical in attack but has faced difficulties defensively at times, particularly in the duels and defensive tackles that, again, their recent match stats would have shown.

Columbus uses a rather unique 3-4-2-1 formation with the utilization of a lone striker supported by two attacking midfielders. While their attack is quite heavily reliant on the creativity of the midfield and pace of wide players, the fact that they were able to manage only 1 shot on target against Seattle last time out does suggest a certain lack of a cutting edge. Columbus is, of course, more comfortable with possession-based play, as reflected by their 54% possession against Seattle, but the club needs to translate that into goals and more big chances.

The big tactical challenge for them is how to overcome a lack of physicality in duels, as highlighted by a 41% success rate in duels against Seattle. Defensively, they are often organized but can be susceptible to individual errors, which could prove costly against Cincinnati's dynamic attackers. Columbus will most likely control midfield, retain possession, and press Cincinnati's back three in the hope of forcing lapses in concentration.

Historically, Columbus Crew has held the better hand against their southern opponents, claiming 8 victories to Cincinnati's 4. There have been 4 draws between the two sides. Often, the Black and Gold tend to be the better side in these Ohio Derby matchups, but the most recent ones were a bit more balanced.

It was also testament to their growing competitiveness in the rivalry as Cincinnati won 2-1 away in their last meeting in May 2024. Moreover, the first goal has been scored by Cincinnati in 4 of their last 5 meetings, though they have opened their rear guard in every of their last 10 head-to-head clashes.

Among these two sides, one of the remarkable trends is high goal frequency with Over 2.5 goals in the last 5 consecutive games. Looking closer at both teams to score - GG in 4 of the last 5 matches between them.

This seems to be a very closely contested Ohio Derby between Cincinnati and Columbus Crew. Both teams have had strong attacks but recently have shown some vulnerabilities in defense. While home form and goal-scoring ability for Cincinnati make them slight favorites, the resilience of Columbus and their desperate need to bounce back from a heavy defeat may see them return home with something from this encounter. Back a cagey affair with both sides reaching the net but neither likely to run riot.

They have recently been even, each having similar strengths and weaknesses. For the goal-scoring ability, Cincinnati is stronger; that is true because they beat Montreal 4-1. In contrast, their defensive lapses make them vulnerable at the beginning of the game. By contrast, Columbus come into this after a humbling defeat and will be desperate to get back to winning ways, although they certainly need to improve their efficiency in front of goal after managing just one shot on target last time out.

• Home/Draw & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.7 Odds
• Multi Goals 2-3 @ 1.76 Odds
• Correct Score 1-1 @ 7.50 Odds