Columbus Crew vs Orlando City SC Prediction: Columbus Crew is resilient defensively

Columbus Crew vs Orlando City on September 22, 2024, presents a battle of two Eastern Conference powerhouses in what must shape up to be a vital encounter for both as the MLS season nears its end. Using the current standings as a guide, this match may actually be labeled a high-stakes battle, with Columbus Crew currently lying 3rd, and Orlando City in 4th, breathing down their necks. The two teams come into this game with a decent run of recent form, though with slightly different tactics, and that should make it quite intriguing on a technical and tactical level.

Columbus has been one of the more impressive teams this season, using a well-organized tactical structure that places them third in the Eastern Conference. Therefore, with such a record as 15 wins and only 5 losses at home, it should not be easy to crack down on the opposition's strategy. Their recent victory against Toronto saw them resort to a 3-4-2-1 setup-one that places a rather even approach toward both defense and attack. This formation enables fluid transitions through the use of wing-backs that overload wide areas, while their front three will offer creativity and goal-scoring threats.

Key to Columbus' success is Cucho Hernandez, who continues to impress in attack. He was on the scoresheet again in their last outing and will be a focal point against Orlando. In addition, Marcelo Herrera's goal showed the depth of the threat from their midfield. Columbus' solidity in defence is equally impressive, with 60% of defending tackles won in the Toronto game, which tells a lot about their capacity to withstand pressure. Yet, their possession was only at 50%, showing that while they can control games, they also can be comfortable playing without the ball, hitting teams on the counter.

The match between the two teams presents an interesting tactical battle, with Columbus Crew usually resorting to sitting deep in their 3-4-2-1 formation, inviting teams onto them who look to control the ball through possession. In turn, Columbus look to counter and transition quickly, utilizing wing-backs to stretch the backline. It is in winning defending duels and remaining compact under pressure that the visitors are most likely to limit Orlando's creative possibilities. The visitors are also capable of scoring early to net the first goal in their last five matches and could push Orlando into a more expansive setup.

Columbus will focus more on the defensive organization, usually deeper with their back three, and keep winning tackles and duels in key areas. The 60% defending tackle success rate in the last match did bring out how well they shut down attackers in their tracks. They will be compressing the wide players to overload that area with the wing-back and stretch Orlando's defense before giving service to Cucho Hernandez while transitioning with pace after gaining possession.

Orlando City are in good form, with three wins on the bounce, keeping clean sheets in all those games. In their last game, Orlando City players utilized a 4-2-3-1 formation that gave them solidity at the back and fluidity going forward. With Facundo Torres and Duncan McGuire spearheading the attack for Orlando, the team is seemingly endowed with a combination of skill, pace, and finishing ability. Torres has been the important one to ensure goals and assists, while McGuire has been a dependable finisher.

Their strength is definitely a possession-based approach, and they recorded 58% of the ball in their last match against Charlotte. Orlando also created 4 big chances in that match, proving they do have the capability of breaking down defenses. Defensively, they have been sound, with 57% of the tackles won and very few chances conceded to their opposition.

Orlando City has a strong back with 4-2-3-1, enabling them to dominate possession and create high-quality chances. Torres and McGuire, in their rich vein of form, will look to exploit the spaces out in the wide areas that Columbus' wing-backs will leave vacant while pressing forward. Orlando's strengths in aerial duels, having won 56% of them, and long balls at 61% might be an asset, especially if Columbus sits deeper and forces them over the top.

This Orlando team under Pareja likes to play possession-based football, and they will try to take charge of the game by building up from the back using their midfielders to circulate the ball, probing at Columbus' back door. The wide areas are going to be important: expect Torres to drift wide, where he can attack Columbus' wing-backs, and also provide overlaps from the full-backs to deliver crosses into the box.

Historically, Orlando City is slightly above the Columbus Crew in their past meetings. Within the last 20 matches, Orlando has been victorious 10 times, Columbus 7, while 3 have ended in a draw.

Precedingly, Columbus Crew has opened the score in their last five successive encounters with Orlando; therefore, they are very able to initiate their pressure in this fixture.

The fact that Columbus has been able to win the first half in four out of their last five matches against Orlando indicates that it's usually the visiting side that dominates the match's early phases.

It was 2-0 in favor of Columbus during their most recent meeting in May 2024, showcasing even on the toughest of occasions, Columbus can pull through against Orlando.

With Columbus' direct, counter-attacking approach being somewhat the opposite of Orlando's possession-heavy style, this has the makings of a closely-fought contest. Both sides are in good form and it is a bit difficult to decide who should be considered favourite, but the home advantage and the probability of the hosts being able to open the score and, consequently, dominate the first half, may give them the edge here.

They have struck first in five of their last games, and based on how good the team is at the beginning of matches, they probably strike once more.

Both teams come into this match well-disciplined, with Columbus' last 10 games going under 4.5 cards; this should hold, as both teams rely on structured play rather than physicality.

At both ends, Columbus and Orlando have not been producing more than 10.5 corners in their recent matches, something that should make this tie cagey and tactically controlled.

• Home Win @ 1.739 Odds
• Home to Score First @ 1.6 Odds
• Correct Score 2:1 @ 8.50 Odds