Colorado Rapids vs Toronto FC Prediction: Two strugglers go to war

This is an interesting match between Colorado Rapids and Toronto FC, two teams with differing reasons going into the final stretch of the campaign. Colorado Rapids are currently seated 4th in the Western Conference, while Toronto FC are 8th in the Eastern Conference. Both teams have shown erratic streaks with some wins and losses in the recent games, but they will be keen to ensure securing points that will boost their playoff positions.

The Rapids come into this game fresh from a heavy 4-1 loss to Sporting Kansas City. While they held a decent share of possession - 46% - their lack of creativity in the final third really hurt them, as they were able to muster just 1 big chance throughout the game. Defensively, they were also suspect, with only 48% of duels won and 48% of the defending tackles won, leaving them vulnerable. In fact, the score could have been much worse were it not for 6 saves made by the opposing goalkeeper.

Michael Joseph Edwards was the sole goal scorer for Colorado in their last outing, but this side will need to bring an improved all-round performance in order to get on their feet. Colorado is known for their streak of high-scoring games; over 2.5 goals have been scored in 5 of their last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in 4.

Coach Robin Fraser has often set his side in a 4-2-3-1 formation. This shape provides a structure in defense for the Rapids while using the wide areas to advance and create chances. The midfield double pivot certainly helps provide defensive cover, but Colorado may need to tighten up at the back after conceding five goals in their last two games.

In the next match, Colorado will try to dominate midfield and pull Toronto's defense with the wide players. In the 4-2-3-1, central midfielders offer a platform on which transitions are made; meanwhile, fullbacks push high to support the attack. Their low success rate in duels and tackles and total vulnerability in transition defense is, however, a huge point of concern. They will have to get better in those aspects if they want to come out with a clean sheet.

Toronto FC come into this match off of a 2-0 defeat to Columbus Crew. Though they had 50% possession, Toronto FC just couldn't capitalize on scoring opportunities, compiling a mere 4 shots on goal but ultimately unable to pierce the Columbus defense. Toronto relied heavily on long balls, an incredibly high 42% of their total passes were long, which could be indicative of the fact that they will struggle in games where they go behind to build from the back of the formation.

Their defensive stats looked respectable in the last game-winning 60% of defending tackles-but concentration lapses and poor finishing in attack let them down. Toronto, meanwhile, has also been in the habit of giving away goals regularly, shipping in 3 over their last 3 matches.

Toronto FC has favored a 3-4-2-1 formation, heavy emphasis on wing-back play, and a more compact midfield. This would give Toronto width going forward, yet retain numerical superiority in central areas. Still, based on their tendency to send in long balls, there could be bypassing of the midfield area a lot of the time, which may limit prolonged attacks but also gives fast outlets.

That would mean Toronto's 3-4-2-1 needs the wing-backs for width and also quick transitions, often bypassing the midfield with long balls. The midfield should be more efficient in keeping possession by creating chances from open play rather than relying on the long passes. Toronto may find joy on the counter-attack, exploiting spaces left by Colorado's advancing fullbacks with the speed of their forwards.

This fixture has historically seen Toronto FC come out on top, with 9 wins out of the 19 encounters as Colorado Rapids had managed to take away 6 wins with 4 matches finishing all square. With Toronto having an edge over the years, this has often been a cagey, low-scoring affair.

Six of their last seven meetings have seen under 2.5 goals scored, which shows evidence of how tight and defensive a match this can be, with not too many clear-cut chances for either side.

Under 4.5 cards in 6 consecutive matches show that both teams have been very disciplined with the bookings given out in their matches.

September 2021's goalless draw did little to suggest that recent matches between the sides have produced very few goals.

This should be a hotly contested match, as both teams have been struggling of late but are also quite talented. The home-field advantage and better league position of Colorado may give them the edge, but at the same time, their vulnerabilities in defense should not be overlooked. Similarly, inconsistency, particularly in defense, also leaves Toronto at risk of failing to keep Colorado out.

Both teams have scored in 4 of Colorado's last 5, and with Toronto also conceding regularly it seems likely that both teams will find the net.

The last 5 games of Colorado have all seen Over 2.5 goals; with the amount of defensive fragility that they have shown, another high-scoring match could well be on the cards.

This has traditionally been a fixture that sees very few bookings, with less than 4.5 cards issued in any of the last six meetings between the sides; this really is a strong prediction.

• Home Win/Draw & Under 4.5 Goals @ 1.6 Odds
• GG (Yes) @ 1.71 Odds
• Correct Score 2:1 @ 8.50 Odds