Charlotte FC vs Chicago Fire Prediction: Charlotte is clearly the favorite

The crucial encounter in the Eastern Conference sees Charlotte FC welcome Chicago Fire, as both teams seek to finish the season well. This places them 7th in the standings with 42 points from 31 matches played. On the other hand, Chicago Fire is bottom-dwelling in 15th place, with 30 points from 32 matches.

The stakes couldn't be higher for Charlotte, who are fighting for a playoff spot and really can't afford to drop any more points. Chicago Fire, already out of the playoff picture, will be playing for pride as they desperately look to make their poor away record a bit better.

Form-wise, Charlotte have been on a mixed run, having won only once in their last five games. Recently, the 1-1 draw with Inter Miami underlined the attacking limitations and the solidity at the back of Charlotte, who have deployed a 4-4-2 formation all season. However, they created only one big chance while having 40% possession on the night and made only two shots on target. Defensively, they were heavily relying on the goalkeeper, who had to make seven saves in the game.

Charlotte really struggled for consistency, particularly in attack, with under 2.5 goals scored in six of their last eight matches. The side has been compact defensively, keeping the game tight, but very efficient with their set-pieces, creating a couple of important moments thanks to corners and free kicks.

Defensively solid, the 4-4-2 system brings counter-attacking opportunities for Charlotte. They prefer to soak the pressure and bypass midfield as quickly as possible with long balls, where 51% of their passes are hit. Mostly, they do struggle to break teams down when teams sit back, but on this occasion, against a vulnerable Chicago Fire side, they might find success through set pieces and wide play. Their defensive compactness will be key, as they'll look to restrain Chicago's possession-based style.

Chicago Fire's miserable season goes on and on, lying rock-bottom in the Eastern Conference with a paltry 7 wins this season. Similar to Charlotte, Chicago has also managed a single win in their last five matches 1W 1D 3L, with a 1-1 draw against Toronto in their most recent outing. Their leaky defense has been the team's biggest issue, having conceded 10 goals in their last 3 matches and 8 in their last 10 games overall.

Their 3-5-2 formation in the last match against Toronto saw them dominate possession with 61% of the ball but struggled to create chances, registering just three shots on target. The most alarming thing recently for Chicago would be how they have found a trend of conceding first and losing all focus in the first half as early goals have been conceded by the team in 6 of the last 7 matches.

While Chicago's 3-5-2 is built to control possession, the lack of sharpness in attack and fragility in defense clearly cost them dear so far this season. They like to build from the back; however, vulnerability to quick transitions and counter-attacks can be something that Charlotte would look to try and use to their advantage. Chicago regularly falters in dealing with the high intensity of pressing and concedes on transition in defense. This is reflected by an over-reliance on wide play and a general lack of creativity from central midfield positions, which often prevents them from breaking down organized defenses.

Since Charlotte FC started participating in the MLS, the head-to-head matches against Chicago Fire have been mostly dominated by them. Both teams have played five times; Charlotte FC has won four matches, while Chicago Fire has managed to win only once.

This would give them a psychological advantage, as Charlotte has come out on top in four of the last meetings, including two away from home.

Chicago have not recorded a clean sheet against Charlotte since their very first meeting back in 2022.

The most recent meeting, in May 2024, was a tight 1-0 win for Charlotte that encapsulates the trend for close, low-scoring games between these teams.

Charlotte will most probably attempt to target set pieces since Chicago has had to struggle with the defensive transition for the most part of the season and given away a number of goals from dead-ball situations. Given the struggle by Chicago in defending crosses and long balls, physicality in the air could prove key for Charlotte.

Charlotte are more functional, and the pressure is absorbed and counter-attacked. Chicago had long spells in possession, but they never arrived in a position to threaten, and that means this could be decisive for the compact block of Charlotte and counter-attacks, particularly given the problems that Chicago's back three have had in dealing with pacey breaks.

Charlotte holds a psychological edge over Chicago, having won all four of their previous meetings, including a 1-0 away win in May 2024. The fragility of Chicago's defense and possible lack of motivation might also make the mental battle weigh heavily in favor of Charlotte.

• Home Win FT @ 1.7 Odds
• Home Win & Under 4.5 Goals @ 2.07 Odds
• Correct Score 2-0 @ 8.50 Odds