CF Montreal vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction: Momentum is clearly with Montréal

CF Montréal hosts the San Jose Earthquakes in a vital MLS matchday at Stade Saputo this Sunday, September 29, 2024. Neither of the two teams has been able to cement a high level of consistency this season and will be desperate for the three points as they pursue their separate targets in the final third of the regular season. At the moment, Montréal finds itself 10th in the Eastern Conference with 8 wins, 10 draws, and 12 losses. While they are fighting for a playoff spot, San Jose is mired in 14th in the Western Conference and struggles to break its winless streak as their playoff hopes have faded. This game will be a good opportunity for Montréal to profit from poor form from San Jose; however, MLS fixtures are generally unpredictable, which makes the contest very interesting in terms of strategies and momentum.

Montréal comes into this game on the back of a confidence-boosting 2-0 win against Chicago Fire, where they kept a solid defensive structure while also being efficient in front of goal. Their recent form - two wins, one draw, and two losses in the last five matches - is promising, considering their unbeaten run of three games. Although it seems balance is being found on the team, since it would be a very small margin for error in the fight for a playoff spot, every point counts.

Montréal usually adopts a 3-4-2-1 shape, bases their approach on not allowing goals and transitions to attack as quickly as possible. They had just 45% possession in their recent win against Chicago but created two big chances, showing their efficiency in attack. They are wingback reliant for width, using the flanks for delivering crosses into the box. However, they have been inconsistent with their crossing accuracy, with only a 33% success rate of late. The strong point of Montréal will be their ability to control duels and win tackles, something that can be underlined by their solid 67% success rate of defensive tackles. It also means their counter-attacking style is likely to capitalize on any kind of weakness from San Jose, especially with quick breaks once possession is recovered in midfield.

Montréal will try to capitalize on the frailties at the back for San Jose and their inability to hold on once ahead. The recent streak that Montréal have been on, inclusive of their efficiently won game against Chicago, speaks volumes of a team that can handle pressure and convert their chances that come along. The unbeaten run of three games will add more coal to their confidence, and with San Jose's failure to keep clean sheets-six goals conceded in each of their last four games, Montréal should feel confident about breaching the Earthquakes' defense.

San Jose is in a bad patch with only one win in the last five matches. The previous outing ended in a disappointing 2-1 loss to St. Louis at home as the winless streak has further been extended to four matches. The Earthquakes have not struggled on the road but still have not kept clean sheets in any of their last four games and have not shown any kind of form to pull off a result away from home.

San Jose usually line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, based on possession-based football. The team recorded 56% possession against St. Louis, but the final product has not been good. Having created just one big chance in the last game and only five shots on target, the inefficiency of San Jose in converting possession into clear-cut opportunities has been one of the major concerns. Defensively, their 48% success rate in tackles shows a team which is struggling to be in control of important defensive moments. Long balls-52% in the last game-indicate a preference to circumvent midfield, seeking fast outlets, but all too often this has played into the hands of their opponents for quick counter-attacks.

This inconsistency has plagued San Jose's approach, especially away from home. Poor records in defense and their tendency to fail to convert possession into tangible results could make them get exposed to Montréal's counter-attacking setup. They may boss periods of the match through possession, but that will ultimately be tested by whether they are able to keep Montréal at bay and capitalize on their chances when they come along.

Historically, Montréal has dominated this fixture, with 6 wins out of the 10 matches that both teams have played against each other, while San Jose has managed to record only 2 wins, with the remaining 2 games ending in draws. This is the last time these teams faced off, in March of 2019, where Montréal managed to record a 2-1 away win. Montréal has a very good record against San Jose, both home and away, and this in itself is a psychological advantage going into this match.

Besides, the stout defense of Montréal has frequently frustrated San Jose's attack in past encounters, and their tactical approach seems to play well against the style of the Earthquakes. The last time San Jose outwitted Montréal, it was some seasons ago, meaning that breaking a foe that has consistently managed to have the better of them is not easy.

With the recent form of Montréal, adding home advantage to poor recent defensive form from San Jose, it certainly seems the home side has the upper hand in this contest. Given the consistent level of solidity at the back and efficient counter-attacking that has come hand in hand with the consistent performances from Montréal, they have every right to be favorites going into the tie, especially with San Jose boasting a terrible away record.

That Montréal are unbeaten in their last three, while San Jose have gone winless in four, is a marked contrast in recent fortunes. Momentum is decidedly with Montréal. While Montréal's defensive resilience and counter-attacking capabilities are suited to this tie, it is a matchup that really plays into their hands, given how San Jose often struggle against teams that allow them possession but can strike fast on the break.

But Montreal has an excellent head-to-head record in its favor, 6-2, including the last meeting with a 2-1 outcome; given the weakness of San Jose on away days, Montréal is bound to be the likelier winner.

• Home/Draw & Under 4.5 Goals @ 1.63 Odds
• Home/Draw & GG (Yes) @ 1.96 Odds
• Correct Score 2:1 @ 9.00 Odds