CF Montreal vs New York City FC Prediction: Montreal’s Playoff Hopes Hang in the Balance Against High-Flying New York City FC

The two come into an important match with serious playoff implications in the Eastern Conference on October 20, 2024. Montreal, in 9th place, is fighting for a post-season spot, while NYCFC comes in 5th, looking to maintain momentum heading into the playoffs. Coming into this tie with contrasting results, this may well be a tactical encounter between the teams that could seal their fates in the conference.

Although Montreal has been resilient in the last couple of weeks, a recent 2-0 defeat to Charlotte means they will be under pressure to get back to winning ways. Meanwhile, NYCFC comes into this match full of confidence following a convincing 3-1 victory over Nashville, extending their unbeaten streak to four. While the history between the two sides goes strongly in favor of NYCFC, with Montreal playing at home, a closely contested affair is expected.

CF Montreal is coming in 9th position with a record of 10W - 10D - 13L and desperately needs the three points to keep their playoff hopes from slipping further away. Their recent form has been spotty: three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. However, their 2-0 loss against Charlotte highlighted some real concerning issues, particularly in their lack of creativity in front of goal. They managed 64% possession but failed to create any big chances, a problem they'll need to address if they hope to break down NYCFC's sturdy defense.

With a 3-4-2-1, CF Montreal gets a decent defensive structure, but against top defenses, it has proven to allow very little attacking production. In their last, against Charlotte, CF Montreal dominated possession but struggled to break down the opposing team's defense, only managing one shot on target and zero big chances created. Montreal will most likely attempt to fashion transitions better and exploit set pieces, as the ability to break down structured defenses has been a full-season problem. Defensively, they must be more aggressive in winning duels and tidying things up on the tackling front after a 67% completion against Cincinnati.

New York City FC, on the other hand, is in a comfortable position in 5th place with 14 wins, 8 draws, and 11 losses. They have been in fine form, winning three out of their last five matches to extend their unbeaten streak to four. They were in great attacking flow in their win over Nashville 3-1, where they created three big chances and converted them clinically. Having given away goals in virtually every match, opening the scoring and dominating the first half has proven to be a key to recent success.

New York City FC's 4-3-3 setup is more dynamic, dependent on quick transitions and high-pressing games to unsettle opponents. They were clinical in front of the goal in their win over Nashville, managing to fashion a number of big chances despite only 40% possession. Capable of playing directly, with 44% of their passes being long balls, NYCFC bypasses the midfield to target areas of vulnerability in the opposition's defense. NYCFC have been fairly decent on the tackle front, with 72% of their tackles being successful, and they will try to physically impose themselves on the attackers.

The head-to-head record between CF Montreal and New York City FC is skewed in the visitors' favor. In their 20 previous matches, NYCFC has won 12 to Montreal's 2 with 6 games ending in draws. NYCFC has dominated this fixture of late, winning the last four meetings, going unbeaten in the last eight. They have also kept clean sheets against the Canadians in their last three meetings, underlining their defensive superiority.

It goes without saying that looking at these matchups, one of the main trends is NYCFC opens the scoring first, which in 9 of the last 10 has been the case. They have also won the first half in 8 of those, showcasing their strong opening to most games. Another important factor in these fixtures is the relatively low number of cards and corners that have been seen, with under 4.5 cards and under 10.5 corners happening in a majority of the recent matches.

The last time these two teams met was in July 2024, when NYCFC won 2-0 at home to further extend its domination in this fixture.

Coming into this match, the record will be a big concern for Montreal against New York City FC. Despite being in good form at home throughout the last few seasons, they have never seemed to pick up a result against NYCFC and consistently fail to break them down whenever they play against a well-settled NYCFC defense. Combining Montreal's inability to create big chances against a more inferior opposition in their last encounter with NYCFC's recent defensive show, it may turn out difficult to find their goal in this encounter.

NYCFC tends to start all games very strong, often scoring early in the games and in complete control in the first half. With Montreal's vulnerabilities in defence, especially in some duels and inconsistency in the tackles, NYCFC will be looking to expose these lapses. NYCFC should score first and take an early lead.

This is likely to be a continued recent trend for both teams playing in low-corner matches. Montreal's lack of creativity and reliance on long balls means they will not generate many corner opportunities, while NYCFC-although with attacking threat-often bypass the wings and play directly into the box.

• Away Win/Draw + Under 4.5 Goals @ 1.78 Odds
• Away Score First @ 1.80 Odds
• Away Win @ 2.25 Odds