CF Montreal vs Charlotte FC Prediction: A close match on the cards

Two teams go into this top-flight MLS match on September 15, 2024, in a key encounter for their respective hopes of keeping the pressure on those above them in the Eastern Conference table. Montreal lies 13th with a record of 6 wins, 9 draws, and 12 losses, while Charlotte sits in 6th place with a more hopeful record of 10 wins, 8 draws, and 9 losses.

This game is at Stade Saputo, where Montreal will seek a home advantage to end a three-game losing streak, while Charlotte seeks to get back on track and firm up their hold on a playoff spot after a narrow 1-0 home loss to Atlanta. Given Montreal's recent form and Charlotte's penchant for tight, low-scoring games, this could be one of those contests where tactical discipline and defensive structure give way to pockets of attacking quality.

Montreal, meanwhile, can't seem to build any type of momentum, having lost four of their previous five matches. In the last one, they were beaten 4-1 by top-of-the-table Cincinnati. They are on a three-game losing streak, and big questions should be asked about this defense. They conceded in 7 consecutive matches, failing to get a clean sheet in those. Although their home record has been slightly better than their away form, their defense has been leaky, shown by recent results.

The typical setup of Montreal is a 3-4-2-1, with emphasis on wing-backs who provide width in both attack and defense. Their midfield, though, has struggled to gain control of the game, averaging 44% in possession during their last encounter. The team has usually struggled to prevent quick counter-attacks, as there have been gaps in the defensive line. With 3 big chances created in that loss, the inefficiency in front of the goal is biting Montreal.

The lone forward Kwadwo Opoku has an uphill task trying to nail home some few chances created by the rest of the team against Cincinnati. Montreal has conceded first in 6 of their last 7 games and has been losing at halftime in the same period. That suggests they get off to slow starts and then often can't recover once they fall behind. They have also been part of high-scoring affairs, with over 2.5 goals in 4 of the last 5.

Poor coordination at the back and finishing in attack have been the areas of struggles for Montreal in recent times. Their 3-4-2-1 system-with the onus on the wing-backs to contribute both in attack and defense-has seen their attacking plan from wide positions blow up in their faces with their concession of the first goal in six of their last seven games being exited, exposing the back three to quick counter-attacks. Midfielders failed to hold game control, and while chances are being created-once again, 3 big chances in their last game-the problem is finishing those off.

Offensively, Montreal will look to break down Charlotte's defense with their main attacking threat in Kwadwo Opoku and lean on set-pieces and crosses to cause their opponent trouble. Though recent form has shown inefficiency in front of the goal, unless that improves, the team's defensive cohesion and work rate might make them vulnerable to the quick transitions of Charlotte.

Meanwhile, Charlotte FC has had a more stable season but has recently been inconsistent with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five games. They lost narrowly at home against Atlanta 1-0, a game they created chances but failed to find the back of the net. Charlotte has been possession-based; they had 49% possession in the last game, balancing that offensive creation with a decent defensive structure.

Charlotte has been playing in tight, low-scoring games of late, with under 2.5 goals coming in five of their last six matches. They've also shown defensive discipline, having conceded fewer goals than Montreal so far this season, and have seen under 10.5 corners in nine consecutive matches. Given the solid tactical shape at their disposal and an ability to be comfortable trying to control matches, the likeliest approach for Charlotte is one that looks to stifle Montreal's attacking endeavors before hitting them on the counter.

Anyway, this can be underpinned with high use of long balls, 64% in their last game, and they are decent with dangerous attacks but low in fouls and cards: clean and efficient.

Charlotte have been a much more regimented side this season, who prefer to ensure defensive solidity and measured buildup play. Their recent games have been tight, low-scoring affairs, and the feeling is that they just like maintaining possession of the ball and never taking too many risks. They can bypass midfield with long balls, and they can be an aerial threat, something that can be quite huge with Montreal's vulnerable backline.

Tactically, the big strength of Charlotte is how they can absorb pressure and strike in key moments. They are not prolific scorers, but it's tough to break down their defensive shape, and this could be a game where, with Montreal's struggles of late, they will focus on frustrating the hosts before quickly counter-attacking.

When it comes to the head-to-head record against CF Montreal, Charlotte FC clearly falls behind. Both teams met four times in the MLS, and Montreal still is unbeaten in these encounters.

Montreal have been quite successful in bursting the defense of Charlotte, finding the back of the net consistently in these matches. On the flip side, scoring freely against Montreal is where the problems have occurred for Charlotte as this bad run continues in this fixture.

By form, by home advantage, and through tactical setup, Charlotte FC tends to have the upper hand. Recent defensive woes and poor form for Montreal, combined with the disciplined nature of Charlotte, does point toward the away side being in control of the match, especially if they open the scoring. Still, Charlotte's inability to put away more than one goal consistently in a game may keep this closer than expected.

Both teams have been in matches with corners not more than 10.5. Montreal has seen this in straight 7 games while the last 9 matches of Charlotte have also been the same.

Cards Discipline: Both teams have been in good behavior with cards, as Charlotte has not seen a yellow card in their last match and has stayed under 4.5 cards in their last 6 matches, while Montreal also has stayed under 4.5 cards in 6 of its last 7.

Finally, the recent matches of Charlotte have been low-scoring and clean-sheet matches, with 4 out of their last 6 matches seeing only one team score. Given Montreal's lack of attacking consistency and considering the strength of Charlotte's defense, it is highly likely that one team will fail to score.

• Under 10 Corners @ 1.654 Odds
• GG (No) @ 2.35 Odds
• Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Odds