CF Montreal vs Atlanta United Prediction: Will CF Montreal’s home advantage secure their spot, or can Atlanta United spring a surprise in this knockout tie?

Indeed, the stakes do not get much higher for CF Montreal and Atlanta United with the start of the MLS playoffs. The two Eastern Conference sides finished 8th and 9th, respectively, and are scheduled to square off in a high-stakes elimination game on October 23, 2024. Home-field advantage will be earned in Montreal, fresh off of a recent surge in form, while Atlanta has been known to dig deep for gritty comebacks. Both teams go into this fixture on the back of crucial victories, and this encounter promises intensity, drama, and tactical intrigue.

CF Montreal was a rollercoaster, and they finished their season quite strongly, winning 4 out of the last 5. Laurent Courtois' side has been down the ages for resilience, and that has been compounded further when they play home. The 3-4-2-1 system allows midfield control, creative attacking from wingbacks, and solid defensive organization. Last time out, in a convincing 2-0 win over NYCFC, they were efficient in attack and solid at the back-a low block that frustrated them before taking advantage of set pieces, which has shown how well they adapt to tight games.

Key stats for Montreal paint the picture of a team that relishes balance: only 41% possession, but strong in duels and tackles at 55% and 53%, respectively. That speaks to their style of soaking up pressure and hitting back quickly. The fact that they have opened scoring in 4 of the last 5 fixtures indicates just how much of a success-maker these early breakthroughs are. Hence, the team is on an expedition to reach deep into the playoffs, and with that good home record, confidence would be instilled.

Laurent Courtois has moulded Montreal into a physically dominant team that can be compact without the ball, particularly in their 3-4-2-1 shape. The wingbacks within that system provide width and a cross into the box. Usually, Montreal do like to sit deep, absorb the pressure, and transition quickly when in possession. Their midfield is very important in shielding the backline and transitioning up the pitch, often filled with two pivots.

Set pieces and quick counters are most probably going to be Montreal's weapons, especially because they've fashioned big chances from these situations in recent games. Aerial duels and second balls are going to come in handy, particularly against an Atlanta side that is quite vulnerable on set pieces. The center-backs are expected to feature prominently in the breaking of Atlanta's high-pressing tactics with precision long balls up to the pacey forwards.

Much like Montreal's, Atlanta United's season has been inconsistent, with only 10 wins in 34 games, but under interim coach Rob Valentino, they have picked up some steam, not losing any of their last 5 matches. The last match was a gutsy 2-1 win against Orlando City, really showing the never-say-die attitude of the team. On the back foot for most of the game, with only 33% of the ball, Atlanta created 3 big chances and defended resolutely to keep the opposition out through some remarkable goalkeeping and tactical discipline that proved key.

The 4-2-3-1 formation that Atlanta utilizes balances defensive solidity with attacking fluidity. Their pressing game is not consistent, but when it gets into rhythm, often opponents' build-up plays are disrupted. Of course, there are areas to improve: the defense, which has conceded in 7 straight matches, and their slow starts, often conceding the first goal of the game, something that has happened in 5 out of 7 games. But despite their frailties, Atlanta remain dangerous in transition and often thrive in chaotic moments-something that could spell trouble for Montreal if they aren't careful.

The team of Rob Valentino is sure to thrive on transitions that happen fast and with high pressing, particularly when fielding their formation of 4-2-3-1. With their two sitting midfielders, Atlanta more often tries to get back quick in central areas to regain possession and spring attacks through its wide players. Be that as it may, their defense seems porous at times when they have been caught pushing too high.

Due to Montreal's counter-attacking prowess, Atlanta might be a little more pragmatic in their approach and play deeper, using long balls over the top for their attackers to pursue. Defensively, their hiccups of not being able to deal with set pieces and crosses should have some remedy, as the Montreal wingbacks, along with their dead-ball specialists, could easily expose them.

Historically, Atlanta United leads CF Montreal with 8 wins out of the 16 matches played between them, with Montreal managing to win 5 and drawing 3. However, their recent form has ceded momentum to the latter. In their last encounter earlier in October 2024, Montreal managed a 2-1 victory due to tactical nous and home advantage.

This match could see physical clashes and discipline come into huge play, despite their rivalry, as more than 4.5 cards have been shown in five of the last seven meetings between them. The last playoff meeting between Atlanta and Montreal did not go as planned for the former, and one would feel that revenge will be on their minds.

Montreal's compact, tight defense and their ability to grind out results will play to their advantage in a playoff atmosphere. The strong aerial presence and clinical set-piece execution also mean they should be sure they take advantage of Atlanta's lapses in defense. Their tactical discipline and recent form-4W in the last 5-gives them an edge, more so playing at home, where they have been tough to break down.

The biggest weapon of Atlanta is their quick transitions, ways of turning defense to attack in rapid fashion. Though the defense has been inconsistent, an attack capable of causing problems is there for Montreal, especially if they can catch them on the counter. Aggressive high press and pace up front will be key in disrupting Montreal's game plan.

This will be an extremely important battle between Montreal's wingbacks and Atlanta's wide attackers. Should Montreal's wingbacks take ownership of the flanks, Atlanta's defensive shape could fold under the pressure. Conversely, should Atlanta utilize the pace out wide to break through Montreal's 3-man defense, the game could open up in no time.

• Home Win/Draw + Under 4.5 Goals @ 1.72 Odds
• Home to Score First @ 1.87 Odds
• Correct Score 2-0 @ 13.00 Odds