Austin FC vs Houston Dynamo Prediction: A low-scoring derby on the horizon

Austin FC host Houston Dynamo in what looks to be a very close MLS Western Conference match at Q2 Stadium on September 22, 2024. Various ups and downs of luck have seen teams fight to break into the playoff fray in Austin or try to get themselves in position for a higher playoff spot in Houston. Expect an intense encounter between these two Texas rivals, as every point from this point forward will come in huge in the tight race.

Austin FC stands 10th in the Western Conference with 9 wins, 8 draws, and 12 losses. The recent matches did not really go that well, winning only once in the last five matches, drawing once, and losing three. In these recent performances, leaks in the defense are very much apparent since they have failed to win in the last three matches, conceding in all of them. However, they did well to record a respectable 1-1 away draw in their last outing against a strong LAFC side. Under head coach Josh Wolff, Austin's tactical approach usually sees a balanced setup, but they must recover their solidity at the back to deal with the threat of Houston.

Recently, the form Austin FC is in shows attacking inefficiencies and defensive instability. They had just 39% possession in the last game against LAFC, a sign that they are finding it hard to boss games against strong teams. In this match, though they created two big chances, the overall offensive output remains low at just two shots on target.

Austin also have had their fair share of defensive woes, conceding in each of their last three matches, not impressive, given that they managed only 46% success rate in dominating both aerial and ground duels in their last match. In fact, Houston thrives on keeping the ball. Their last five matches have also been tipped towards low-scoring affairs since five of their last six matches have witnessed fewer than 2.5 goals.

Austin will probably remain in a 4-4-2 formation, as seen against LAFC. This will provide better defensive structure, but the midfield pairing will have to be sure to shut down space to Houston's skillful midfield. Austin should be dropping deep and hitting on counters, looking for long balls to beat the press of Houston's midfield. Their forwards, especially O'brien, are going to have to capitalize on what will be very limited opportunities since Austin tends to be more reactive in these types of matches.

Austin also needs to fix their inefficiency in duels and second balls, as those might become crucial determinants against a possession-dominating side such as Houston. They might have the option of being out of control forcibly in midfield while using the wings to bypass Houston's pressure for a more direct approach.

Meanwhile, the Houston Dynamo are in much better form, sitting 7th with 12 wins, 9 draws, and 8 losses. Unbeaten in their last four, they come off a 1-1 draw against Vancouver, where they bossed the possession count but ultimately lacked a finishing touch in the final third. Houston's form in the last five games, with 2W, 2D, and 1L, shows that they are hard to break down. That in part has been because of Ben Olsen's improved defensive structure. Their tendency to win possession while conceding fewer goals may prove to be the deciding factor in the match.

Houston have been solid, particularly defensively. Unbeaten in four matches, with two goals conceded within that period, their defense has been pretty watertight. Against Vancouver, they enjoyed a high 68% possession with 13 corners, showing that when up against the weaker teams, they can dominate. Still, their conversion of that possession to goals remains a problem, as they only managed one shot on target despite the overall dominance.

Success for Houston has come chiefly from their high press and tactical discipline, shown by the fact that they boast 67% success defending tackles from their last match, postulating their efficiency in winning the ball back. The Dynamo's high pressing tactic may work against Austin since they have struggled to play from the back thus far.

Houston will most probably maintain their 4-2-3-1 shape, since their philosophy this season has shown more emphasis on possession-based football, domination of the tempo, and probing opponents for weaknesses in their organization. The double pivot in midfield is to be led by Herrera as he wins the battle against the visitors and recycles possession back to nullify any momentum which Austin may try to develop. Fullbacks for them will go ahead high up the pitch, providing width and stretching Austin's defensive lines considering the latter's recent games show vulnerability to crosses.

Houston's high press and winning of tackles can suffocate Austin's building from the back. In attack, Houston will look to cut through Austin's defense via intricate passing through the middle and utilizing the physicality of Ponce to hold up play or finish from crosses and set-pieces.

The fixture between Austin FC and Houston Dynamo has, meanwhile, been some level of competitiveness with Austin easily ahead in their recent meetings. The teams have met 11 times in MLS play, and the record was greatly in Austin's favor as Austin FC won 8 while Houston Dynamo won 3.

Suffice it to say, Austin FC have been the more dominant of the two in this fixture, with the Orange and Blacks notching wins in the last three meetings with Houston. By far, Austin has kept a clean sheet in all three of these wins, further accentuating how well they have fared in terms of defense against the Texas opponents.

In the last of those, in May of 2024, Austin won 1-0 at home to extend their streak against Houston to quite a positive note. Austin also tends to get off on the right foot in the two sides' recent series of matches, scoring first in four of the last five matches.

On the other hand, Houston Dynamo have failed to impress consistently in terms of scoring against Austin. This is evident in their failure to net against them in the last three matches. Houston has conceded in each of their last four games against Austin, a sign that they have struggled with defensive fragility against this opponent.

Both teams have tendencies for low-scoring matches, as Austin has five of their last six under 2.5 goals, and Houston features under 2.5 goals in four of the last five. This game could be another cagey affair.

Houston is also in better form, unbeaten in their last four matches, while Austin has struggled for consistency, particularly at the back.

Finally, Houston's matches have been heated, with over 4.5 cards in each of their last five games. Considering that rivalry and the stake, this match is almost assured to have a high number of fouls and bookings.

The match might not see a plethora of goals, but it should be a tactical game between the two sides with different approaches. If anything, Houston's solid defense and possession game may just edge Austin's home advantage to set up a tightly contested Texas derby.

• Total Under 3 Goals @ 1.6 Odds
• Away Win/Draw & Under 4.5 Goals @ 1.65 Odds
• Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Odds