Austin FC vs Colorado Rapids Prediction: Western Conference Battle; Can Austin End Colorado's Dominance?

Austin FC is set to host the Colorado Rapids in a critical match at Q2 Stadium when the 2024 MLS season goes into overdrive on October 20th. Rapids sit in 6th place in the West, while Austin are in 10th place with not much between the two in that tight spot. Colorado also comes with a superior head-to-head record against Austin, having beaten them 2-0 earlier in the season. These teams come into this match without any great form, though, and will be desperate to win this match in order to bolster playoff ambitions.

Austin FC has been in a pretty indifferent phase of their season, presently sitting 10th in the Western Conference on 10 wins and 9 draws from a total of 14 losses. The recent form has been inconsistent, notching just one win in their last five games. Austin won 2-1 on the road against LA Galaxy in their last outing but had Guillherme Biro sent off. In the 4-3-3 setup, there was some wiggle room for attacking mobility, but it is obvious that there is a clear problem with the defensive structure of the team, particularly concerning duels and possession of the ball, which might be a make-or-break aspect for their match against Colorado.

Austin's favorite 4-3-3 formation lies much in wing play and quick transitions, but its defensive structure has been pretty irregular. While they have managed 48% possession against LA Galaxy, domination of duels as well as control over mid-battle has been missing from the side. The defense had failed to keep solidity with it as they had conceded first in 5 of their last 7 matches. Austin will have to be so much better with possession breakdowns as they will have to break down a stubborn Rapids defense, especially in the absence of their talismanic winger after the red card handed over to him in the last outing. A more focused midfield engagement and necessitate avoidance of rash fouls seeing that they conceded as high as 17 fouls in their last outing.

On the other hand, Colorado Rapids had a better season in general, with the team sitting at 6th place, 16 wins, 5 draws, and 13 losses. Nevertheless, Colorado's form over the last few weeks had drastically fallen as the team won only one of their last five matches and lost four out of them. Their latest loss was at home against Seattle Sounders in a match that saw a sole goal score, 1-0. Colorado, despite their very powerful counter-attacking style in a 4-2-3-1 formation, struggled to create clear-cut chances in this game, and their lack of creativity in midfield may again leave them vulnerable when they take on an Austin side hungry to expose any weaknesses.

Colorado plays in a system of 4-2-3-1 that prides itself on quick transitions and playing the long ball to look to expose their opponent's defense. In their latest game against Seattle, they relied greatly on the long balls-58% long balls-but were unable to capitalize with more impactful opportunities for a goal, creating no big chances. Rapids are strong in defense with a good 73% success rate in won tackles, though in attack not much has been seen in their last two games, scoring just one goal in three matches. Success on Wednesday could come the way of Colorado when they can win defensive duels, create a high tempo on the counter-attack, then create set pieces and take advantage of Austin's defensive mistakes.

Historically, Colorado Rapids have dominated this matchup, winning four of the last eight meetings. Austin got only two wins, and a couple of matches ended in draws. The Rapids are yet to taste defeat in their last four matches against Austin. Their good defensive record, along with Austin's failed attempts to break Colorado's rigid setup, has been the defining factor in this match. The two teams last met back in June 2024 when Colorado ran out comfortable winners with a 2-0 home victory in making it another great result against Austin.

Other feelings of their recent meetings tend to side with the low-scoring fixtures, since 4 out of the last 5 meetings have seen less than 2.5 goals scored. Colorado also tends to open the score, as they have in 6 of the last 8 meetings-something likely to happen again if Austin fails to correct its defensive issues. When these sides face each other, both teams tend to put on disciplined performances; less than 4.5 cards were issued in 4 of the last 5 meetings, and less than 10.5 corners were taken in 5 of the last 7 games.

The forthcoming match between Austin and Colorado is a good match between two teams fighting for playoff slots but without the best form. Colorado has an edge in history, and though recently in a quite poor run of form, the strong structure at the back gives them an upper hand. Austin, who is capable of moments of brilliance, especially going forward, has not had the consistency needed to break teams that are organized like Colorado.

How well Colorado wins duels and utilizes long balls will be a defining factor in the tie. Their better record in defensive duels and tacking will help them contain Austin's front line and transition into counter-attacks.

Set-piece efficiency: considering the low number of corners in these matches and how disciplined each team has been in defense, the goals are more likely to come from open play, and Colorado's experience in opening the scoring first might prove decisive.

• 3 Way Totals - Under 11 Corners @ 1.683 Odds
• Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.6 Odds
• Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.40 Odds