Atlanta United vs New York Red Bulls Prediction: Both teams struggle to keep a clean sheet

Atlanta United will look to welcome the New York Red Bulls to Mercedes-Benz Stadium in arguably an important MLS Eastern Conference encounter. Both teams are having very different seasons when it comes to consistency and form. The visiting Atlanta United, who are battling along in 12th position, badly need a victory to save any lingering playoff aspirations. Meanwhile, the New York Red Bulls sit comfortably in 6th and press hard to cement their postseason ambitions. And although Atlanta has the home-field advantage, the Red Bulls will be aiming to maintain their supremacy in this encounter, considering how successful they have been lately in their head-to-head matchups.

Atlanta has had a tough season with 8 wins, 10 draws, and 14 losses. They have failed to win in their last five matches, their latest an upsetting 2-1 home defeat to Montreal. Even though they created a number of chances in that match, 4 big chances, Atlanta's inability to finish, coupled with defensive lapses, saw them slump to another loss. While their 4-2-3-1 formation has flashed attacking potency, it often opens up space in defense. The club has conceded first in their last five matches-a consistent trend that has underlined their slow starts to games and difficulty in taking control of matches.

Key statistics illustrate struggles: they had just 49% possession in the last outing alone, with 7 shots on target but only one goal allowed, while allowing Montreal to score twice despite limited chances; they lacked defensive resilience, now going five games without a clean sheet with such a leaky backline. Also, the tendency to concede first coupled with their failure to secure victories in five matches puts pressure on this important home fixture.

In this match, Atlanta will most likely revert back to their conventional 4-2-3-1 shape that gives them width with wingers and space in transition. The key issue is discipline, particularly in the center. The team must stick to a better structure without getting caught out by Red Bulls' pace on the counter. Atlanta have the tools to create chances-as evidenced by their recent 7 shots on target-but their profligacy in front of goal is a concern moving forward. Defensively, their fullbacks will have to be aware of the Red Bulls' fast breaks.

New York Red Bulls, on the other hand, are more consistent and find themselves in 6th place, seeking to cement their playoff spot. In their last match, a dominant 4-1 away win against Toronto, Red Bulls showed their attacking strengths in a 4-4-2 set-up. Though they had only 43% of the possession, they were highly effective: they created three big chances and were able to convert four of those. But defensively, it has been a seesaw with Chelsea conceding in each of the last eight games, often finding themselves trailing rather early.

Recent form-1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses-reveals them to be dangerous going forward, particularly in transition, yet incapable of dictating control in matches and many times forced into a reactive approach. Their defensive frailty is also underlined by the 69% success of their defensive tackles in their last match-a figure that underlines just how much they are having to rely on last-ditch defending.

Expect them to deploy the same 4-4-2 that is there to soak up some pressure before transitioning with quick counter-attacks. Given how Atlanta's defense gives away early goals on most occasions, expect the Red Bulls to hang back and allow Atlanta to commit men forward, leaving space in midfield that they can exploit. Their direct way of going about things, utilizing long balls and wide players, will go to town on Atlanta's vulnerable defense. While Atlanta has struggled sometimes this season with teams that press high, the high-octane style of the Red Bulls can prove to be a huge factor in inducing mistakes in dangerous areas.

Historically, the New York Red Bulls boss this fixture, as they have emerged winners 10 times in the 17 matches that the teams have contested, while Atlanta has only two victories. They last faced each other in September 2024, which finished with both sides canceling each other out 2-2, showing intent in attack and vulnerabilities at the back. The fact that Red Bulls have troubled Atlanta with high pressing and quick counter-attacks and a favorable head-to-head record is testimony enough. Notably, matches between the pair in recent times have seen high-scoring affairs, as over 2.5 goals were seen in four of the last five meetings between the teams, showcasing how fragile their defenses can be.

Form is the big concern for Atlanta, who have not won or kept clean sheets in their last five matches. Their attacking unit has been creating chances but struggling to show a consistent output in front of goal. The Red Bulls, although not in sterling form themselves, go into this match off the back of an impressive win and will look to take advantage of Atlanta's woes at the back.

That trait of having possession, dominating, but not really making the most out of it might play into the Red Bulls' hands. Visitors will look to use their prowess in counter-attacking and quick transition of play to expose Atlanta's backline that is mostly exposed. Given how both teams have had some struggles when it comes to defending recently, this could be a game with plenty of opportunities for a goal at either end.

• Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.606 Odds
• GG (Yes) + Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.70 Odds
• Draw @ 3.60 Odds