Atlanta United vs CF Montreal Prediction: A game of few goals

When Atlanta United host CF Montreal in the Major League Soccer Eastern Conference on 3rd October 2024, there will be back-to-back action very important for both clubs, separated by just a single spot on the table and each fighting for playoff contention. Atlanta United come in 11th place, while Montreal sit in 10th position; both are very desperate to get points that can help them earn a postseason spot. That means that Atlanta, who has not won in their last four outings, will look forward to enjoying home advantage. Meanwhile, Montreal goes into the clash with more Impetus as it comes into the game with three wins in their last five games, fresh from a comprehensive 3-0 win over San Jose.

They are currently in underwhelming form, having recorded just one win in the last five games. The team has recorded just one win in the last five matches, with a record of 1W, 3D, 1L. They are unbeaten in three but have failed to win in four. The performances have been poor both defensively and in attack. Low-scoring games have characterised their recent games; indeed, five of their last seven matches have seen less than 2.5 goals scored in the match, indicating a lack of cutting edge in attack but some improvement in defence.

Manager Rob Valentino has favored a 4-2-3-1 formation in the main, anchoring his approach around a possession-based game with overlapping fullbacks and high pressing of late. That said, they have been in erratic form as of late. While they may dominate possession, such as having 49% against Philadelphia, they do not take advantage of those opportunities and only had one shot on target in that last game. Defensively, Atlanta have been fragile at times this season, especially at the start of the game, conceding first in five of their last six. It's most likely that high-pressing games with the addition of wing play will provide the key to break down Montreal's compact lines of defense, but questions still linger about finishing.

Form-wise at home, Atlanta hasn't been good. The recent home performances haven't gone as expected. With an overall record of 8W-10D-13L, it really doesn't matter if they are leading in games; they just can't close it out, which has been represented by the recent results being typically low-scoring.

Montreal come into this fixture in better form, unbeaten in the last four with three wins and one draw, playing more confidently. Over 2.5 goals have featured in five of their last six matches, with a recent 3-0 win against San Jose underlining their offensive efficiency and solidity at the back, given only one goal conceded in four games.

The former have fared a bit better and usually set up in a 3-4-2-1. With a back three supported by wide midfielders for width, they can remain compact at the back while pushing numbers forward in transition. The team enjoyed 58% possession in their last outing and proved capable of dominating the game; they were especially dangerous in the final third, fashioning five big chances. This counter-attacking style has served Montreal pretty well, especially against teams like Atlanta that can be a bit more open. Defensively, they have improved with clean sheets in four of the last five games.

Throughout the season, away form has been fragile for Montreal. Finding a way to replicate the home performances on the road has proven difficult, with just three wins away from home so far. However, given Atlanta's vulnerabilities, Montreal could look to capitalize on counter-attacks and exploit spaces left by Atlanta's fullbacks.

Including this season, Atlanta United and CF Montreal have played 15 times in the MLS, where historically, Atlanta holds the advantage with 8 wins to 4 for Montreal and 3 draws.

The Atlantans have been strong at home against Montreal, beating them most often in Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Their attack has generally found success against the defenses of Montreal, scoring multiple goals in previous home matches.

However, the tide has turned somewhat for Montreal, who have started to win their encounters with Atlanta since July 2024, where they came out on top with a slender 1-0 home win. The match showed how Montreal can nullify the attacking threat from their opponents with a compact block at the back-something that has become very characteristic of them this season.

The game will likely hinge on how Atlanta's possession-based approach fares against Montreal's structured defense and counter-attacking style. Montreal's three-man defense is well-equipped to deal with Atlanta's crossing and forward pressing, while their wide midfielders and pace up front will test an Atlanta backline that has shown weaknesses when exposed on the break. The frustration for Atlanta will be converting possession into clear chances, and that might just play into Montreal's hands: hit them on the counter.

• Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.702 Odds
• Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.65 Odds
• Correct Score 1-1 @ 9.50 Odds