Spain vs France Prediction: Will France luck run out this time?

When Spain plays France in the semi-finals of the UEFA European Championship on Tuesday at Fußball Arena München, they will be looking to extend their current winning streak. Spain defeated Germany 2-1 in overtime to win their last Euro 2024 match. In the second half of extra time, the Spanish team scored once. In the last eight games across all competitions, they have not lost. They have seven wins, one tie, and one loss in nine games this season. France defeated Portugal 0-0 (5-3) on penalties to go to the quarterfinals of the Euro 2024 competition. In the extra time, neither team could score, forcing the sides to penalty kicks. 

They have gone eight games without a loss. They have four wins, four draws, and one loss in 2024. In their most recent meeting, which took place in October 2021 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, France emerged victorious 2-1 in the UEFA Nations League Final. Olmo has once scored the game's pivotal first goal. Mbappé, who scored one goal in this season's Euro 2024, has been France's main offensive danger. This season, the Spanish team scored in all five Euro 2024 matches. Spain has won every one of them in their last six games across all categories. The Spanish team won four of the six games and let up three goals throughout that time.

While their opponents scored twice in the opening forty-five minutes, the majority of their goals—nine—came in the first half. In their last six games, France has won two and drawn four. During that time, the French team scored three goals and gave up one, taking the lead in three of the six games. While their rivals were unable to score before halftime, they managed one goal in the first half.

Spain is without a doubt the favorite to win Euro 2024 after their flawless group stage performance. But the one thing working against them is the draw. La Roja defeated Croatia, Italy, and Albania in all three of their group stage matches without giving up a goal.

They joined Italy as the only teams to win all three of their group stage matches without giving up, like Italy did on their way to taking home the trophy at Euro 2020. In the round of 16, Spain did concede, however, it was due to a Spanish player who put the ball in their own net. Despite the tragic own goal by Robin Le Normand, Spain overcame Georgia 4-1 to set up this thrilling match.

There hasn't been a stretch of five internationals for France between March and September 2013 where players failed to score in as many games from open play. But in their hour of need, their defense did not waver. With an expected goals against (xGA) total of just 2.63 going into Euro 2024, France has the lowest of all quarterfinal teams and the second lowest overall behind Serbia (2.57), who have already been eliminated.

Despite having the most clean sheets of any team in the tournament—three out of four—France is not receiving any support from the players in front of them. Against Belgium, Deschamps attempted to rekindle Les Bleus' attacking fire with a three-man strike force, but the opportunities were few.

Randal Kolo Muani was added late, but the starting lineup of Mbappé, Marcus Thuram, and Antoine Griezmann was still favored. This was another mostly ineffective performance. Just two of France's 19 efforts on goal against the Red Devils were on target, and in the end, they prevailed thanks to a stroke of luck. But Deschamps has the chance to rotate his front lineup.

Although De la Fuente needs to rearrange his defense and there are some selection concerns, overall Spain has looked stronger than France and, more importantly, have been far more efficient in front of goal.

For Les Bleus, Kylian Mbappe has fallen short of expectations; it's possible that the face injury he sustained during the group stage has affected his form and confidence, forcing him to play with a mask. The French assault appears a bit flimsy with Mbappe misfiring, while Spain has been playing fantastically up forward.

In their five games, La Roja has only given up two goals while scoring eleven goals. Alvaro Morata, a striker, has only managed one goal for Spain, who have spread the points among eight different scorers. In contrast, France has scored one goal and has benefited from two own goals.

Despite having a strong attacking lineup, Les Bleus have occasionally been remarkably conservative, spending most of their time defending against Portugal. Even if La Roja needs to make a few lineup adjustments, they appear to be the more likely winners because similar strategies would likely prove costly against Spain's crafty attack.