Romania vs Ukraine Prediction: Ukraine to win although less goals expected

Romania and Ukraine take on each other in the group stage of the UEFA European Championship on Monday 17th June 2024 at 16:00 (GMT+3) at Fußball Arena München. Both teams are looking to extend their winning streaks; the hosts have not lost in 12 games while the visitors are attempting to go six games without a loss.

This is both teams' inaugural international cup game of the year. Having been ousted in the 2022 Qatar World Cup Qualifiers Group Stage, Romania is making its maiden continental debut. Ukraine last competed on the continent during the 2022 Qatar World Cup Qualifiers, where they lost in the Group Stage.

In their most recent meeting, which took place in May 2016, Ukraine emerged victorious, 4 - 3. Romania's record in their previous six games in all competitions is four wins and two draws. They won four of the six games, scoring first, and gave up two goals during that time. In the first forty-five minutes of play, they scored five goals, while their opponents only managed one. In their last six games, Ukraine has won four, drawn one, and lost one. In that span, they scored 10 and let up 5, scoring first in one of the six games. Their opponents scored four goals before halftime, compared to their four goals in the first half.

Romania is competing in its sixth European Championship, their first since finishing bottom of their group with just one point in 2016. This summer, they want to advance to the knockout stage. Romania's win percentage of 6% in previous Euro finals implies that this could be a difficult assignment; their only victory in 16 games came against England in 2000. However, recent performances have boosted hopes.

Romania's incredible journey came to an end when they defeated Switzerland in their last qualifying match to go undefeated in Group I, winning six and drawing four of their ten games en route to Germany. Recent friendlies have validated Romania's defensive prowess: aside from a 3-2 loss to Colombia, the Tricolorii allowed just one goal in draws with Northern Ireland, Bulgaria, and Liechtenstein.

Romania will face tougher opponents in their Euro 2024 group, which includes Slovakia, Belgium, and Ukraine, but they may still believe they can advance because a number of third-place teams will advance. 

Having lost out on Qatar 2022, Ukraine is currently participating in the UEFA continental championship for the fourth time in a row, albeit they have not always performed well. The Ukrainians have lost eight of their 11 games thus far and have not scored in six of their nine group stage matches; but, three years prior, they advanced to the quarterfinals.

After narrowly missing out on a spot in the finals, the war-torn country is hoping for a similar outcome this time around to boost morale back home. They had to rely on a playoff position gained by their previous UEFA Nations League performance after finishing third in qualification behind England and Italy. Serhiy Rebrov's team then managed to overcome Bosnia-Herzegovina and Iceland with the help of two late goals.

Rebrov is managing in his first big competition. The former striker for Tottenham Hotspur will be experiencing his first taste of the European Championship because he was not present at any throughout his great playing career. While Ukraine conceded three goals in the first half-hour of their 3-1 loss to Euro 2012 co-host Poland, the build-up results have been uneventful. A goalless draw away to Germany was followed by a 4-0 thrashing of Moldova, which raised spirits ahead of Monday's opening match.

Over the years, these two sides have played just one game. Romania has won 0 of the meetings while Ukraine has won 1. There has never been a draw in any of their matches. The outcome of the most recent meeting was Romania 3 - 4 Ukraine.

The average number of goals scored in past Romania vs. Ukraine games has been seven, and BTTS has occurred 100% of the time. In the UEFA Euro Championship thus far this season, Romania has averaged 1.86 points per game at home and 1.67 points per game away from home.

The identity of Romania's lone striker for the Euros is still up for question, with Denis Alibec, George Puscas, and Denis Dragus all fighting for the starting spot upfront because of the lack of goals in 2024.

Heorhiy Sudakov, the star of Shakhtar Donetsk, is expected to play an advanced role in midfield, while Mykhailo Mudryk and Viktor Tsygankov are expected to feature out wide. Andriy Yarmolenko has contributed to five of Ukraine's eight goals at the European Championships with two goals and three assists, but Artem Dovbyk won the La Liga Pichichi trophy after a strong debut season for Girona and is expected to start up front.

Hence, we expect Ukraine to win and under 2.5 goals. A 0-1 or 0-2 win is expected for Ukraine.