Villarreal vs Bayern: Bet on a convincing win for the visitors

Villarreal face Bayern Munich in the first leg of the UEFA Champions League quarter-final. Despite the fielding factor, the German side is heavily favoured in the upcoming game, which is hard to argue with given the current form of the opponents and the status of the teams.

Villarreal finished last cycle with an away match against Cadiz. They were weaker than the Spanish outsider, losing 0-1 to the Southerners. Two weeks later, Villarreal played another away game within the La Liga framework and again against an outsider, this time Levante. Villarreal lost again, this time even more heavily, with a score of 0-2. In terms of statistics, Levante were indeed sharper than their opponents, although the Yellow Submarine did score, but failed to do so. After 30 rounds played in the Spanish championship, Villarreal have dropped to seventh place, and have already precisely fallen out of contention for a place in the Champions League zone. The maximum for the Yellow Submarine in La Liga 2021/22 is the sixth position.

Villarreal’s home statistics in the Champions League are mediocre. There has been just one win in four games, over a rather modest Young Boys by European standards. They also suffered a 0-2 defeat at the hands of Manchester United and had productive draws with Atalanta and Juventus. Given these statistics and the current tone of the Yellow Submarine, there are doubts about Villarreal’s prospects in the upcoming game.

In contrast to Villarreal, Bayern thrashed rivals Freiburg last weekend. However, it is uncertain that this result will hold, because the Munich side had 12 players on the pitch for 15 seconds of playing time, which is forbidden by the regulations. The champions brought their own problems. However, even if Bayern are handed a technical defeat for that match, which is entirely possible, the Bundesliga standings will not be much affected by this incident, because Borussia Dortmund, who are in fact the only real rivals of the Munich side, lost in the 28th round dramatically.

Whatever decision is made about the match against Freiburg, Bayern’s tone is complete, and so are their away stats in the Champions League. In the group stage, Bayern won three away games out of three, including 3-0 against Barcelona and 4-0 against Benfica. In the play-offs against Salzburg, the referees recorded a 1-1 draw, with a Bavarian xG of 2.66 against their opponent’s 1.50. The statistics are eloquent, Bayern’s win in the Austrian match. By the way, in the return match, Bayern left the Austrians in the lurch, beating them 7-1.

Bayern are the team that, if possible, solves the problem of reaching the next round of the tournament after the first match, regardless of whether the meeting is played at home or away. It is highly desirable to approach matches against teams of Bayern’s level at the peak of form to have a chance of a positive outcome. And judging from Villarreal’s latest results, you can’t say that the Yellow Submarine are in good form at the moment, if they failed to score against Cadiz and Levante. Practically no doubt that the German champion will bring home a win from Spain. H2 (-0.75) for 1.73.

We have already mentioned that Villarreal have performance problems, this is obvious. In the last five games in two different tournaments, the Yellow Submarine have failed to score against Osasuna, Cadiz and Levante, scoring only against Juventus and Celta. If the Divers failed to score against these three, it is doubtful that they will score against Bayern. Our second bet is W2 to nil for 3.04.

Eleven years ago, Bayern played at Ceramica and achieved a solid 2-0 win thanks to goals from Kroos and Rafinha. We wouldn’t be surprised if the Munich side beat the Yellow Submarine in their first Champions League quarter-final - correct score 0-2 for 9.00.

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