Benfica vs Inter Prediction: Betting on the home team

On April 11, 2023, the first quarterfinal match of the Champions League between Benfica and Inter will take place at the Estadio da Luz.

Benfica had a disappointing season last season, finishing in third place in the Portuguese championship only 17 points away from the leader, but now the Eagles have worked on their mistakes. They are top of the table in the local league, seven points ahead of their nearest pursuer with seven rounds to go. They lost 1:2 to Porto at the weekend, but a comfortable gap allowed them to get to the bottom of the table, but there was an opportunity to prepare for the Champions League quarterfinals. The Reds have also performed excellently in the main European competition, beating Belgium's Club Brugge 2:0 and 5:1.

Inter is experiencing a challenging period in the championship. They continue to appear in three tournaments at once, but such a tremendous load can lead to the fact that they will not be able to win anything in any of them. In their last eight meetings, they only won one home league game against Lecce, 2:0. Further setbacks have already relegated the Blues to fifth place in the standings. In the UEFA Champions League, they got past Porto in the last eight, but now they face an even tougher opponent. In the Italian Cup, the Milanese reached the semifinals, where they drew with Juventus 1:1 in the first game.

Benfica and Inter approach the first quarterfinal match of the Champions League in different states. The Portuguese are now in good form, as evidenced by eight victories in their previous nine meetings in all competitions. The Italians can only dream of such statistics, as they have not won once in their last six games, settling for three draws and three defeats. Simone Inzaghi's side had all the chances to go out already in the round of 16 against Porto, but a goal box in the compensatory time saved them from defeat, but the Eagles are an even tougher opponent. We can bet on Benfica's victory.

Benfica has been playing cheerfully in the group stage and round of 16 in the UEFA Champions League. Still, they must confront the very pragmatic Inter, and the quarterfinal stage is a serious affair. The AC Milan side has stopped scoring recently, but their defensive play is relatively good too. In their previous five meetings with the Bianconeri, there have only been six goalscoring chances (1.20 goals per game on average), which is very poor. On this basis, the best option for the prediction seems to be a total under 2.5, and separately it is worth betting on Joao Mario's goal.