São Paulo vs Portuguesa Prediction: São Paulo is the favorite in a derby with a lot of tradition

The two teams have played each other 217 times, with São Paulo leading with 103 wins against 54 defeats. The Tricolor and the Lusa drew 60 times. The difference between the two teams today is enormous. Portuguesa doesn't even participate in any national competition, and São Paulo is the Copa do Brasil holder and will, therefore, be playing in this season's Copa Libertadores. São Paulo leads Group D with four points; Portuguesa is second in Group A, behind Santos, with three points.

It's the Tricolor's first game in the Campeonato Paulista that we are previewing, so I'm pleased to take the opportunity to talk about some of the changes at the club. The most significant change was undoubtedly regarding the coach. Thiago Carpini, who promoted Juventude to the Série A, has been chosen, succeeding Dorival Jr., who is now Brazil's new coach. As for the departures, the big highlight is the sale of Beraldo to PSG for 20 million euros and the end of Caio Paulista's loan. Luis Gustavo, Bobadilla, and Ferreira are São Paulo's biggest signings this season. In the Paulistão, a draw in the last round away to Mirassol wasn't the most desirable result, but the team is still top of the group. Victory against Portuguesa is the target to remain in first place.

The Lusa lost 2-1 at home to Bragantino in the last round but left a good impression, causing problems for Red Bull in the final part of the match. After trailing 2-0, Portuguesa almost equalized, forcing Bragantino goalkeeper Cleiton to make great saves. The Lusa's last win against São Paulo was at home in 2013, but its last win at the Morumbi (now MorumBIS) was in 2010. For a team that doesn't participate in any national competition, Portuguesa is making an interesting start in the Paulistão.

The home team is the favorite for this match, of course. The difference between the teams is considerable, but it's fair to say that the Paulistão is full of surprises. As the odds for a São Paulo victory are low, I will take a bit of a risk and bet on a goal total of over 2.5. Both teams scored and conceded in their two previous games.