NK Celje vs NK Aluminij Prediction:Celje to win the game

Nestled in the gorgeous surroundings of Slovenia, the Stadion Z'dežele in Celje will play home to a match that appears, at first glance, to be a classic David vs Goliath battle when Celje takes on Aluminij in Match Week 28 of the 2023/2024 campaign. Scheduled to take place on 30th March 2024 at 19:30 (GMT+3). 

Especially while playing in front of their home fans, Celje has been a beacon of domination, with their fortress at Stadion Z'dežele. Their home advantage is measured by a notable statistical advantage in addition to the boisterous support: a 77% win percentage at home with average expected goals (xG) of 1.86 and 1.17 against. These numbers not only show off their strength in offence and defence, but they also highlight how well they convert opportunities and neutralize opponent attacks.

Conversely, Aluminij has an uphill struggle due to its roadside difficulties and tribulations. Their away record presents a dismal image, with a win percentage of just 31% and a loss percentage of 54%, further exacerbated by an average xG for of 0.95 compared to an xG against of 1.78. This difference shows a defensive weakness that Celje may take advantage of as well as a difficulty finding the back of the net.

Celje, building on their previous performance, will be hoping for more after defeating Radomlje 2-1 in PrvaLiga.

Denis Popovič and Tamar Svetlin scored Celje's goals in the first half. 

Celje has scored in all six of their previous games, continuing their recent trend of prolific goal-scoring.

They have scored a total of 12 throughout that time and given up a total of 7.

Aluminij will be looking to bounce back from a setback in their last PrvaLiga match against Domžale.

Lately, it has been more common for at least one side to fail to score in games when Aluminij is involved. This has happened five times in the previous six expeditions that they have gone on. Aluminij has scored four goals in those matches, compared to eight goals scored by its opponents. Of course, this game won't necessarily follow that kind of trend.

Before this game, the average over 4.5 goals percentage scored by both sides was 19%, which indicates that anticipating a flurry of goals may be a little too optimistic given the 1.22 odds for under 4.5 goals. With regards to BTTS chances, bettors may have to lean towards No BTTS as Celje's defence will be too strong for Aluminij's offensive endeavours.

Given the projected flow of the match, value-seeking bettors may find it interesting to investigate under markets for a safer harbour and markets around the expected goals. Given their strong home defence, the dynamics point to a controlled Celje victory with a clean sheet.

The potential scoreline is a 2-0 or 3-0 win for Celje.