Los Angeles FC vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction: LAFC will lift the cup despite struggles

The final between LAFC and Sporting Kansas City should be a thrilling match between two MLS sides in opposite form and approaches of play. However, LAFC goes into the final with their most recent five-game winless streak in the MLS Western Conference, sitting 4th in the league. SKC lies 12th in the league and has been in decent, inconsistent form, where a win is followed by losses. With the League positions of both teams in mind, cup finals are peculiar environments, and form can usually be thrown out the window. The magnitude of the final puts everything into perspective, and with each team having their strengths and weaknesses, Los Angeles is set for an entertaining encounter.

The route to the final has hardly been straightforward for LAFC. Coming into this game, they were fresh off of a 3-1 loss against FC Dallas, while recent MLS form-2 draws and 3 losses in the last five games-carries the feel of a team struggling to find consistency. They did manage to dominate possession against Dallas, enjoying 53% of the ball, but once again failed to carve out any real clear-cut opportunities, fashioning 0 big chances. Defensively, they have been fragile-3 goals conceded in their last three matches. Nevertheless, LAFC has been more composed in the Open Cup: defeating Seattle Sounders 1-0 away in the semis, a result that reflected their ability to grind out results in knock-out competitions.

Key statistics from their last outing against Dallas highlight a few causes for concern: LAFC managed a total of only 4 shots on target, lacked creativity, and failed to carve out any big chances. They did manage to complete 52% of their long balls and held their own in defensive duels-cleared 50% of tackles-but that inability to turn possession into meaningful attacking output may hurt them in the final.

LAFC under Steve Cherundolo have favored a possession-based, high-pressing style, but recent form suggests this has been less effective. Their 4-3-3 formation allows them to overload the midfield and retain possession, but their struggles in the final third are evident, as seen by a lack of big chances against Dallas. LAFC will most likely look to control the tempo of the final and attempt to pull Kansas City's defense from side to side with its wide players, but it will need to be more efficient in front of the net, considering it has managed few shots on target in the recent games.

Defensive problems do exist with LAFC, and the worry is definitely there to rectify the fragility in the backline, especially as they tend to concede goals all over these recent matches. The physical play definitely shows for LAFC, as was evident from their disciplinary record: 19 fouls and 2 yellow cards against Dallas. Each of their last six games has seen over 4.5 cards. They are being careful with set pieces, not conceding many, not allowing themselves to be dragged into a physical play that would upset their rhythm.

Sporting Kansas City are in a more balanced form. Though they suffered a 2-0 loss at home in their last game against Minnesota, having a great 67% possession, they are doing quite well in the U.S. Open Cup. In their semi-final game, Kansas City easily won 2-0 against Indy Eleven, showing them to be good enough in this cup competition. In their last five games, they have two wins and one draw with two losses, somewhat on the rise compared to LAFC's slight fall in form.

The possession-heavy style for Sporting KC suits their overall game, something which was well evidenced when they took on Minnesota. However, the big problem remains possession without purpose, with that being converted to only one big chance in the game despite having the majority of the ball. Defensively, Kansas City have pretty much held firm, with 81% of their defensive tackles won against Minnesota. All this defensive robustness married with an effective counterattack might give them an edge in a final where they probably would not dominate possession.

They will most likely setup in a more counter-attacking manner for the final. While they do enjoy having possession, they do show an ability to adapt, case in point in some solid defensive displays in the U.S. Open Cup. Long-serving manager Peter Vermes has shown his preference for either a 4-1-4-1 or 4-3-3 formation, in which they pack the midfield and look to exploit any spaces left open by the opposition during a counter-attack.

Here, the Kansas City defense comes into play, as they have kept solid defenses in recent matches, conceding less than 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches. Their organized backline, who won 81% of defending tackles against Minnesota, needs to be at its best to repel LAFC forwards. Given that they earned 9 corners in the last match, Kansas City will be looking to use the set pieces effectively. Kansas City should be able to capitalize on LAFC's vulnerabilities if they manage to frustrate them with solid defending and then attempt to break.

The head-to-head history between LAFC and Sporting Kansas City suggests a near-even record, with LAFC having a slight high hand. In the last 12 meetings, LAFC have won 6 times, Sporting Kansas City have come out as winners 4 times, and they have drawn twice.

LAFC have never lost to SKC in their last six encounters, and this may give them somewhat of a psychological advantage going into the final. This run evidences recent dominance on the part of LAFC in this matchup, which will play an important role on the day in question.

These are usually games that see the fewest corners, with 8 of the last 10 meetings yielding under 10.5 corners. That means that when these two teams play against each other, they have less of an all-out attack but rather channel more energy into being organizationally sound on the defensive side.

Both teams have had a recent trend of low corner counts in their matches. LAFC has recorded under 10.5 corners in 6 out of their last 7, while under 10.5 corners have been seen in 7 of the last 9 Kansas City games. With most finals being cautious, expect a similar number of low corners in this clash.

A low-scoring game is thus likely with both teams showing defensive resilience in their respective Open Cup semi-finals. Kansas City has seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last five games. LAFC has struggled to score, failing to register more than a goal in most of their recent outings.

But big-match experience and home advantage give LAFC a slight edge over their opponents. The team is undefeated in their last 6 matches against Kansas City, and that gives them an added psychological boost to perform during knockout scenarios.

• Under 10 Corners @ 1.875 Odds
• Home/Draw & Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.82 Odds
• Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.35 Odds