Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg Prediction: Freiburg's Champions League aspiration on the line again

Freiburg's Champions League hopes are back again on Friday, at the Stadion an der Alten Forsterie against a Union Berlin side hoping to continue their bid for a place in the Conference League qualifiers. Freiburg is sixth on 16 points.

Freiburg and Mainz drew 0-0 at Europa Park in their final Bundesliga game while Union Berlin lost their last Bundesliga game against Bayern München 3-0 at the Allianz Arena, going on a three-game unbeaten run (wins: 2 draws: 1 defeat: 0). In the previous Bundesliga match between the sides, Union Berlin won 2-1 at the Stadion An der Alten Forsterei last season.

Union Berlin now got the better of Freiburg, who are unbeaten in their last three Bundesliga games (wins: 2 draws: 1 loss: 0). Freiburg are looking for their first league win in a clash between the two clubs since November 2022. 

Union Berlin lost for the first time in four Bundesliga games when they lost 3-0 to Bayern Munich on November 2, a game in which the Bavarian managed 2.51 xG, 16 shots and three big chances. Given the quality of the German giants' players, the loss to Vincent Kompany's Bayern is no disastrous consequence, but Bo Svensson will be disappointed that his side exited the second round of the DFB Pokal on October 30 time the loss was 2-0 against third-place Arminia Bielefeld.

Swenson's side have been poor offensively this season as they have conceded nine goals, the second-worst combined in the league, but to their credit they boast a third-place defensive record the best in the top flight having been taken just eight times.

Union Berlin's recent league results have been slightly better having picked up two wins from their last four visits, and their home record is strong now having won four of their last five league games at Stadion An the Old Forsterei. Bo Swenson has the perfect team available this weekend. Only Lucas Toussaert and Yannick Steyn are expected to miss the home side.

Freiburg was restricted to just two shots on goal against Mainz, their second attempt at goal in the Bundesliga this season. Julian Schuster said that although his side created more possessions in the final third, he was pleased that his players were at least able to prevent Mainz from having more chances of their own. Interestingly, the draw against Mainz was the first of the season as they had won seven and lost three of their previous ten games in 2024-25. 

Schuster's side progressed to the third round of the DFB-Pokal with a 2-1 win over Hamburger SV in late October, where their victory marked the seventh time this season they have conceded at least one goal two in a game. Freiburg have kept just two clean sheets in their last six games, losing two, winning three and drawing one in that time.

The visitors lost 3-1 to RB Leipzig in their last away game on October 26, but it should be noted that they have emerged winners in three of their last four matches on the road. Freiburg travel to Berlin where there are unlikely to be many players on Friday. Daniel-Kofi Kereh, Manuel Gulde, Marilyn Roll and Kenneth Schmidt are all reportedly still missing.

Union Berlin has indeed had a difficult time offensively, lacking the firepower and creativity needed to consistently threaten opponents. Key players struggle to remain consistent in the final third. Their defensive system, while usually organized, often struggles when forced to chase plays—especially when they concede first. When they go under a target, their ability to recover is limited, as they tend to rely on strong defenses and quick adjustments rather than longevity