FSV Mainz 05 vs TSG Hoffenheim 1899 Prediction: Mainz likely to win and over 2.5 goals expected

On Sunday, Mainz will play their 12th match of the season at Mewa Arena, which will be a crucial matchup with Hoffenheim. Hoffenheim secured their third victory of the season by defeating RB Leipzig 4-3 in Sinsheim last weekend. The victory came about as a result of an exciting late comeback by Hoffenheim. 

It was thanks to the outstanding performances of some key players that Hoffenheim were able to push themselves out of the red zone in the Bundesliga standings. In the UEFA Europa League match that took place in the middle of the week, Hoffenheim swiftly reverted to their previous behaviour by suffering a loss of 0-3 away at Sporting Braga. Despite this, they have not suffered a single defeat in their last two Bundesliga matches. Is it possible for Hoffenheim to keep their perfect record intact when they play Mainz on the road in Matchday No. 12?

Mainz will also enter this competition on a positive note. Last weekend, they were on the road and defeated Holstein Kiel by a score of 3-0. Mainz thoroughly dominated the field from the very first minute of the match till the very last minute of the game. The home side has already won the league for the second time in a row, and they have scored three goals in each of these victories along the route.

Mainz is in a strong position going into this game. They are three points behind Borussia Dortmund in the Europa League standings and only one point behind sixth-place Borussia Mönchengladbach, who hold the Bundesliga's Europa Conference League slot. They might get one step closer to guaranteeing their European aspirations with a victory on Sunday.

In their most recent match, the hosts defeated Holstein Kiel 1-0, earning a well-earned victory. They dominated with 18 shots and produced about 2.5 xG, while limiting their opponents to seven attempts and less than 0.5 xG. Along with their amazing 3-1 victory against Borussia Dortmund on November 9, Mainz has been playing well lately, losing only once in their past six Bundesliga games, winning three and drawing two.

They have had mixed results at home at the Mewa Arena. They have won and drawn their previous two league games after suffering three straight losses. In order to continue their upward trajectory in the rankings, Mainz will be keen to develop more consistency on their home field.

In their thrilling 4-3 victory over RB Leipzig, when they overcame three deficits to secure a historic victory in Christian Ilzer's first game as manager, Hoffenheim will go into their matchup with Mainz with confidence.

However, a 3-0 Europa League setback to Braga on Thursday stifled their momentum. After falling behind by two goals in the first eight minutes, Hoffenheim found it difficult to rally. Die Kraichgauer is now in 25th place in the Europa League standings as a result of the outcome, and they could be eliminated unless they improve. For the time being, their aspirations are still alive because they are only one spot outside of the round of 16 playoff spots.

Hoffenheim's recent performance in the Bundesliga has been inconsistent. They have only lost once in their last six league games, but they have only won once in their last five games in all competitions. But there are still issues with their away form. Hoffenheim has shown resiliency by drawing their last three away Bundesliga games. However, both draws came after a miserable run of six defeats in their last seven away games in the top division. 

Both of Mainz's recent league victories over Holstein Kiel and Borussia Dortmund featured three goals each. Hence, I anticipate that Mainz will build on this form and defeat Hoffenheim, who have lost all of their away games this Bundesliga season. Mainz defeated Hoffenheim in each of their last three home games. 

Given how weak Hoffenheim's defence has been thus far this season, I also expect over 2.5 goals.