FC Koln vs Werder Bremen Prediction: FC Koln to reap from new formation

FC Koln and Werder Bremen face each other in the 16th Bundesliga fixture of the season. Both sides find themselves at opposite ends of the table with Werder Bremen sitting at 9th and FC Koln at 13. Between them there are just 4 points and a win here could make a huge difference for either of the two teams. Werder Bremen are eyeing a conference league spot at least and are only 4 points away and FC Koln have no real ambitions apart from staying off the relegation zone till the end of the season.

FC Koln are currently in 13th position with 17 points in 15 matches. They have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats with a goal ratio of 21:29 so far. And at home, they are 10th with 11 points in 7 home games. They have 3 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their home games so far this season. And on home soil they have a goal ratio of 11:9.

FC Koln had an interesting break due to the world cup in Qatar and during that period they played 4 friendly games and won 3, losing 1. In those 3 games, they scored a total of 10 goals and conceded none. The fans would hope they can carry on this new form into the Bundesliga. Before the world cup, FC Koln lost all three final matches in the Bundesliga.

In 9/9 of FC Koln matches, less than 4.5 cards have been shown and in ⅚ matches, less than 10.5 corners have been played.

Werder Bremen are in 9th position on the league table with 21 points after 15 games. They recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats and had a goal ratio of 25:27. Away from home, they are the 6th best team in the league, with 11 points from 7 away matches. They had 3 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with a goal ratio of 11:14 goals in their away matches so far.

Werder Bremen lost their last 2 matches leading to the world cup, with one being a 6-1 thumping against league leaders Bayern Munich. But it seemed they had some time to refresh during the world cup break, as they won 4 and drew 1 in all 5 friendly matches.

Werder Bremen have been first to score in 5/5 matches and have won the first half in ⅘ matches. In ⅘ matches, less than 4.5 cards have been shown and less than 10.5 corners have been played in the same time.

In 20 meetings between these two teams, Werder Bremen have 7 wins, while FC Koln have 5 wins and 8 matches ended in a draw. The last two matches between these two ended in a 1-1 scoreline.

Werder Bremen have no losses in their last 3 meetings and FC Koln are without a clean sheet in those 3 matches. In ⅚ matches, Less than 2.5 goals were scored and in 5/7 matches, less than 4.5 cards were shown. Also in 6/8 matches, less than 10.5 corners were played.

One advantage of the world cup break was to allow teams such as these, with little participation in the tournament, to fall back, regroup and restrategize. Which was what both teams needed as they ended the Bundesliga with terrible results. The break paid off as both teams produced positive results during the friendly games. FC Koln went on a scoring spree, scoring 9 goals in the last 2 games and had a taste of consecutive wins for the first time in a long time. So, the question now is, who really learned a lesson or two from the break? Let’s take a close look at the changes either side made during the friendlies.

FC Koln manager Steffen Baumbart switched between a 3-5-2 to a 3-5-1-1 in the final 3 matches of the friendly matches which was different from his 4-2-3-1 formation against Hertha BSC in their last encounter in the Final Bundesliga game prior to the break. By the way he lost 2-0 in that match. So I think Steffen Baumbart will be sticking with his new 3-5–1-1 formation, playing a more compressed midfield structure.

Werder Bremen manager Ole Werner, switched from a 3-1-4-2 to a 3-5-2 in the final games of the Bundesliga before the break and lost both matches. He continued with a 3-1-4-2 / 3-5-2 into the friendly matches and won several matches. So we can expect him to line up with either of the formations here. Judging from the way these two teams line up, you can expect them to throw bodies forward and push for goals. So back both teams to find the back of the net at least 1. A score draw looks like a likely outcome but we’ll see.

• Bet on Over 2 Goals at 1.63 Odds
• Bet on Correct Score 2-2 at 10 Odds
• Bet on Full Time Draw at 3.9 Odds