Toulouse vs Olympique Lyon Prediction: Lyon can snatch a narrow win

The match between Toulouse and Olympique Lyon on 29th September 2024 is poised to be a vital contest between the two teams that are positioned not very far from each other in the league table. Toulouse presently sits in 13th position, having won just one of their last five games, while Lyon rests in 14th place, which is below par with only one win in five games. Both sides will be looking forward to gaining points in this encounter as they go up the table to avoid being caught in an early relegation dogfight this season.

Toulouse comes into this match following a disappointing 2-0 loss against Brest, where they have 57% of the possession but still manage just one shot on target against the four big chances they had created. Eventually, those chances were not converted and their defense was breached twice.

Of late, Toulouse have been adopting a 3-4-2-1 structure of play, as they try to balance the amount of defense versus offense on the pitch. In the last game, they were more conservative, with a higher amount of long balls played (45%) and crosses into the box (16%), indicative of a strategy bypassing the midfielders and creating chances quickly through direct play. On defense, Toulouse has been pretty decent: they have won 64% of their defensive tackles, and they keep games tight, testified by the recent under 2.5 goal streak in 6 of their last 7 matches.

Toulouse has not been able to score in recent games, having netted just one goal in the last couple of matches. Their defense, on the other hand, has remained organized, indicated by how most of their games are normally below 2.5 goals. The team's approach of using direct long balls and crosses in many instances suggests they might try to get at Lyon's defense, especially in wide areas.

Meanwhile, Lyon suffered a narrow home defeat, 3-2, to Marseille, despite having 63% possession, with seven big chances accruing to them, their defense could not contain the opponent's attack and sealed their third defeat of the season.

Pressed for form, given this, Lyon has preferred the 3-5-2 formation, signaling a policy of midfield control and wing play. In their last game, Lyon showed attacking intent with 9 shots on target and 10 corners, using wide areas well with 26% crosses. However, their defending has been pretty frail, having conceded three goals in spite of holding 63% possession. While Lyon had a tendency to play long balls at 65%, their struggles to win duels at only 45% marks a tactical vulnerability in displacing physical contests.

Even though Lyon's attacking prowess has them creating a flurry of chances, they have been badly let down by their defense, which has leaked nine goals in the last three games. Of course, they would score three, as they did against Marseille, but their inability to win duels and contain opposing attackers poses a big problem. Surely, Lyon's strong record against Toulouse, unbeaten in 16 matches, may give them psychological momentum, but they will surely need to shape up at the back if they are to post a good result in this match.

Historically, the head-to-head between Toulouse and Olympique Lyon presents the visitors ahead of their opponents, as Lyon have managed to win 15 out of the last 20 matches. The home team, Toulouse, have managed just one victory in that time, while four matches ended in a draw. At the moment, Lyon are undefeated against Toulouse in the last 16 games played between the two teams.

In the most recent match, in March 2024, Lyon won 3-2 away against Toulouse, extending their unbeaten run against the latter. The trends clearly indicate that, based on the psychological advantage Lyon will have for this fixture, the team has been on an extended unbeaten run and has outscored Toulouse every time.

Historically, Lyon has dominated Toulouse, and with 15 wins out of the last 20 matches, it has remained unbeaten in 16. That said, even as both teams are currently struggling for some form of consistency, Lyon's fire-power in offense should at least see them outscore the goal-shy Toulouse team. That inability to convert chances of Toulouse and the attacking firepower of Lyon sees the edge going to the visitors.

Lyon's matches of late have been quite high-scoring, with each of their last three games ending with over 2.5 goals scored. Additionally, 8 out of the last 9 head-to-head matches between the two teams have seen the same result, so this matchup seems to bring much action in front of the net. While Toulouse's stingy defense will challenge Lyon's offense, Lyon's porous defense might just allow too much for Toulouse.

Both teams have a penchant for defensive vulnerabilities, evident in the fact that Lyon have conceded in every recent match while Toulouse has mostly struggled to keep clean sheets. Head-to-head trends also point to this with both teams finding the net in 7 of the last 9 meetings. Toulouse will most likely find the net at home, but Lyon's superior attacking record should ensure they get on the scoresheet as well.

• Home/Away & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.72 Odds
• Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.935 Odds
• GG (yes) @ 1.66 Odds