Strasbourg vs Olympique Marseille Prediction: Marseille is in better form

Ligue 1 action runs riot on September 29, 2024, as RC Strasbourg Alsace hosts Olympique Marseille in an eagerly anticipated encounter at the Stade de la Meinau. Strasbourg sits 10th in the table and would be eager to halt their recent slide against a Marseille side that flies high in 2nd place. In contrast, both teams make for an intriguing tactical battle, with the search for consistency in Strasbourg going up against Marseille's dominance in form.

Currently mid-table in Ligue 1, bright moments have dotted Strasbourg's term so far, but the side simply cannot seem to nail its performances with results, evident in their record of just one win in the last five matches - a record reading 1W, 3D, and 1L. Their recent 3-3 draw away against Lille was exciting to say the least, but once more showed their frailties in defense after allowing three goals to be let in. They created six big chances, too, but blew their lead and showed up both in attack and defense. Strasbourg has allowed 10 goals in their last five matches, an alarming statistic going into this test against a Marseille that has been clinical in front of goal.

Tactically, Strasbourg line up in a 4-1-4-1 shape, hoping to be compact defensively and strike quickly on the counterattack. Unfortunately for them, their poor form at the back, highlighted by a tally of 10 goals conceded in their last five games, has overshadowed some very promising forward play. Transitions back to front are usually quick, with an especial focus on the wide areas for creating chances. Their crosses' success rate is at 33%, which says yes to supplying the ball into the box, but often in doing that, they leave themselves open should the press not get the ball back immediately high up the pitch.

Strasbourg's struggles are highlighted defensively by their failure to hold onto leads, evidenced in the last outing against Lille, when they allowed three goals despite scoring first. Their success rate of 47% in duels and 78% in defensive tackles won is below par and points toward probable weaknesses against a well-oiled side like Marseille.

On the other hand, Olympique Marseille has had an excellent start to the season and is still unbeaten in 2nd place. Having won four and drawn one of their last five matches, including a very crucial win against Lyon 3-2, the confidence in Marseille will surely be soaring high. Without having too much control over Lyon, Marseille was clinical when it mattered most and deadly these past weeks as they win their last three games. The secret to their success has been the ability to score first and control the pace of the games as they constantly won tight games against opponents.

Marseille employs a managerial regime that deploys a 4-2-3-1 system reliant on solid defensive organization before unleashing fast, incisive attacks. Though not possession-oriented-only 37% against Lyon-Marseille are lethal on the counter, especially when opponents open up space. The crossing success rate of 67% shows a clear tactical focus on using wide players to pull defenses this way and that. Its strong duels win percentage at 55%, and defensive tackles won at 69%, show resilience in key moments of the game.

Knowing that Marseille were able to open the scoring first in 8/9 games and stayed in control of the first halves of matches, the psychological advantage is therefore crucial. They often look to impose themselves early on, applying pressure through their high press and structured attacking movements.

Historically, Marseille has always dominated this fixture. Out of their last 20 meetings, Marseille has won nine, while Strasbourg has only managed two, with the other nine ending all square. However, more recently, their meetings have become tighter, with Strasbourg unbeaten in their last four matches against Marseille. The most recent fixture indeed saw a pulsating 1-1 draw in January 2024 and reflected the competitiveness of their recent duels. The final concern is that the defensive record of Strasbourg against Marseille has been poor, with 16 conceded in the last 20 games. Marseille has been much tighter in the back, conceding just four.

With Marseille in a better shape of form and Strasbourg having all sorts of problems at the back, an away win wouldn't be much of a surprise, therefore. As much as Strasbourg can score-first goal in four of their last five games-the resilience at the back and efficiency in attack for Marseille should help them win. Marseille's tendency to score first and take control of games early on could prove to be the key.

Strasbourg have seen plenty of goals in recent matches, with each of their last five seeing both teams find the net, and with Marseille's attacking powers that saw them open the scoring in 8/9 matches this season, both teams look set to score in this one. The home crowd could see a fired-up Strasbourg, but the clinical edge of Marseille should see them through.

The teams have developed a recent penchant for their matches to yield under 10.5 corners, with four of the last five meetings suggesting that may be the case here. Over 4.5 cards is a statistic that has occurred in each of Strasbourg's last four matches, which given the magnitude and intensity of the match, is a good bet for plenty of challenges and fouls.

• Away/Draw & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.6 Odds
• Away Win @ 2.03 Odds
• Correct Score 1:2 @ 9.00 Odds