Stade Rennes vs RC Lens Prediction: A low scoring affair

The highly anticipated Ligue 1 match between Stade Rennais and RC Lens will be held at Roazhon Park on September 21st, 2024. Both teams are keen to consolidate their position in the league table, with Rennes 7th placed in the league table while Lens is placed just above them at 4th position. Considering the form of both teams and the differing tactical approaches taken, this match should be hotly contested, replete with tactical intrigue and with further potential shifts in momentum. This match could prove a turning point in the season for either side, with Rennes looking to break into the top echelons of the league and Lens striving to maintain their unbeaten record.

Rennes come into this fixture in pretty good form, having won 3 of their last 5 matches, while losing 2. Their most recent encounter was an emphatic 3-0 home win against Montpellier, which they played with a 3-4-3 setup. The goals were from Ludovic Blas, Arnaud Kalimuendo and Albert Grønbæk in a professional display that saw them only create 1 big chance. With 51% possession, and a pretty solid defensive performance in which the goalkeeper made 4 key saves, Rennes were able to emphasize their game without overwhelming dominance in attack. However, scoring first in 5 of their last 6 games underlines a knack for getting off to flying starts.

Rennes will most likely maintain the 3-4-3 system that served them well against Montpellier. This will be a solid defensive base-three centre-backs at the back and protected from counter-attacks, very important wing-backs develop width and create overlaps, and the front three offer creativity and goal-scoring threats. Ludovic Blas in particular has been key to their attack, capable of creating and finishing chances. Arnaud Kalimuendo's pace and movement off the ball will, similarly, be important to create stretches in the Lens defense, while Albert Grønbæk's late runs from midfield add another layer of attacking threat.

Defensive Approach: Defensively, Rennes has been quite decent in duels this season, with a 48% win rate, but some vulnerability is suggested by their 47% success rate in tackles, particularly up against an efficiently organized Lens attack. Mostly, Rennes looks to play direct with long balls, with 61% long-ball usage underlining a tendency to bypass midfield congestion and get the ball quickly into their attacking trio.

Meanwhile, Lens comes fresh after a disappointing 0-0 home draw against Lyon in which they lined up in a far more defensively solid 3-4-1-2 formation. Despite having 54% possession, Lens struggled to break down the visitors; with 0 big chances created and 5 shots on target, this draw extended their unbeaten run to 3 matches but also marked their third straight without a win. That says much about the nature of Lens' season, and with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in the last five matches, it says much about a team that needs more attacking efficiency, notwithstanding the solidity of the back.

Lens are solid at the back, and the shape of the 3-4-1-2 sets them up compactly to nullify the opponent. The three center-backs provide enough cover whereby the wing-backs can push forward and provide width in supporting attacks. Their clean sheet against Lyon was assisted by winning a high percentage of duels, 49%, and an excellent 67% in defending tackles. The middle park is very instrumental in ensuring that teams retain possession, evidenced by the 54% possession stat. However, not being able to create clear-cut chances-that is, 0 big chances against Lyon-is one glaring cause for concern.

Lens is a team that is used to relying on their strikers making the most of scarce opportunities, and 36% long-ball usage certainly suggests comfort in building from deeper positions. That could result in a cagey affair if Rennes can somehow stifle their passing lanes. But Lens have every reason to break their 3-match winless run, and the set-piece/counter attacking threat remains alive and real with Les Sang et Or opening the scoring first in 5 of their last 5 games.

Traditionally, the matches between Rennes and Lens have always been close. Rennes had a slight edge over Lens with 7 wins to Lens' 5 wins, and 8 of those matches ended with a draw. However, in the recent matches, Lens has an upper hand as they remain unbeaten in their last 8 matches against Rennes. Both teams have been defending decently this season, with under 2.5 goals scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings between the two teams. Rennes have also struggled to keep a clean sheet, conceding in 6 straight matches against Lens.

This game between Rennes and Lens will probably be cagey, characterized by disciplined defenses and few attacking chances. While Rennes will try to capitalize on their rich vein of form, the unbeaten run by Lens and the tactical stability that comes with it means they will be hard to break down. The game could be low-scoring, with Lens probably scoring first, but Rennes's home advantage might enable them to take a point in a probable draw.

Also, low-scoring games have been observed between both teams recently in H2H games. Coupling Lens' solidity at the back with Rennes' solid yet unspectacular attack will make a high-scoring game less likely.

With the teams finding their scoring groove, the remarkable run is on in which Lens have netted the first one in their last 5 matches; with Rennes conceding early very often, the probability for Lens to break the deadlock is very high.

Both teams are quite disciplined; Rennes has seen less than 4.5 cards in nine of their last ten matches, and so has Lens. Predict a clean and sensible game.

• Away to Score First @ 2.18 Odds
• Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.78 Odds
• Draw Full Time @ 3.60 Odds