Stade Rennes vs Montpellier Prediction: Rennes will shine again!

An interesting match in Ligue 1 will take place at Roazhon Park between Rennes and Montpellier on 15th September 2024. Both teams have had contrasting starts to their season, and this match provides an opportunity for Rennes to get back to winning ways after their recent loss, while Montpellier is looking to break out of its troubling form. Historically, Rennes have held their own against them, taking 10 wins out of the last 20 meetings, while Montpellier has struggled both in this rivalry and in recent games overall.

Rennes have been rather indifferent to this campaign so far and have shown good performance at home to this day, a trait that will be of essence in this game. In their last game against Reims, the two sides emerged from the tie with a share of spoils, yet the visitors bossed certain areas of the game but only failed to convert their chances into goals. Defensively they were sound, but at times, the link-up in attack was sloppy despite creating several good chances.

The Rennes play conventional 4-4-2, believing in transitional moments and wing play. They can resort to beneficial positions from wide areas, particularly due to the pace of their wings and full-backs. The main defensive setup has been compact, though they need to come much tighter against strong attacking teams, as a better resolve in these areas allows them to avoid the kind of lapses which cost them at home against Reims.

Bruno Genesio's set-up in Rennes is one that preaches the gospel of transition from rear guard to attack, which depends on full-backs and wingers for width. They often overlap on either wing to deliver dangerous crosses into the box in their preferred 4-4-2 system. They are willing to shoot from outside the box, as can be seen by a decent number of shots on target.

Defensively, Rennes tend to maintain a compact shape in midfield, breaking up opposition play and transitioning into quick counter-attacks. This high pressing from them usually results in mistakes from opposing defenders, and against a Montpellier side who have conceded early goals all season, this may be just the right strategy to apply.

Montpellier is having a very bad start to this season, and the bad form they had at the end of last season seems to have flowed over. While dominating possession in their last game with Nantes, the inability to finish clinically-as well as some frailty in the back-end-saw their visitors take a well-deserved win home. With no wins from their first three games, pressure will be put on manager Michel Der Zakarian to find his dismal run in the league.

The 4-2-3-1 system Montpellier deploys is supposed to control possession, but they have proved highly vulnerable on the counter this season. Their defense has been very leaky, conceding in each game so far. While they are highly dependent on the creativity of a three-man midfield operating behind the striker, their offensive play hasn't been too effective in breaking down organized defenses.

There should be no surprise in Montpellier retaining their 4-2-3-1 formation as they get most of the possession, but they have been found wanting in the back during recent games. They struggle against teams that press high and force mistakes in their half, which Rennes will be looking to take advantage of.

Offensively, Akor Adams is the biggest threat from Montpellier. He's been one of the more consistent performers in front of the goal. They are a bit reliant on building up the play slowly and patiently, often through wide areas.

But without better finishing and defensive organisation, their possession-heavy approach could backfire against a well-drilled Rennes side.

Rennes has enjoyed the majority share in recent history against Montpellier; here are some of the key stats from their last 20 encounters: Rennes won 10, Montpellier won 4 and 6 matches ended in a draw.

Last match: Rennes 2-1 Montpellier (February 2024, Ligue 1)

The outcome indicates that Rennes won at home in this tight match, and they once again proved how dominant they are in Roazhon Park.

Under 10.5 corners in the last 10 meetings-a fact that would most likely hint toward both teams playing cautiously on set pieces.

Over 2.5 goals have come in eight of ten matches between these two, while both teams have scored in recent clashes often.

Rennes, with their excellent home form and tactical organization combined with the frailties in the visitors' defense, are slight favorites in this encounter. Lack of clean sheets for Montpellier and the attacking threat of Rennes should see the home side take a comfortable win.

There is a very likely chance for more than 2.5 goals in this match as the teams recently involved themselves with high-scoring games. In 8 of Rennes' last 10, over 2.5 goals have been scored in their matches, and Montpellier's poor defense will only add to this trend.

Finally, Montpellier may be in poor form but they have proved that at times, they are capable of finding the back of the net - with Akor Adams being at the forefront. They might just find Rennes' net here too. Rennes sometimes suffer from lapses in defense so both teams will likely score.

• Home Win @ 1.676 Odds
• Home Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.82 Odds
• Correct Score 3-1 @ 12.00 Odds