Stade Reims vs Montpellier Prediction: Reims are favorites to win

The interesting fixture between Reims and Montpellier in Ligue 1 on October 6, 2024, is a contrast of fortunes between two teams. Reims, lying comfortably in 5th position with 3 wins, 2 draws, and only 1 loss, host a Montpellier side struggling in 17th position with just 1 win, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their opening six matches. While Reims will be seeking to extend their good form, Montpellier badly needs the points to lift themselves out of the relegation zone.

Stade Reims are feeling good about their form, considering they have not tasted defeat in the last five games, including a pretty good 3-1 win away from home against Angers. They have been consistent in front of goal, scoring in each of the last five games. With a dynamic 4-2-3-1, Reims could look comfortable in and out of possession.

Reims has had success with the balanced 4-2-3-1 formation that has given them defensive stability and offensive fluidity at the same time. The front four, spearheaded by a mobile striker, usually works well in conjunction with the attacking midfielders to open up chances. Reims likes playing through the wings, applying crosses effective as seen in 24% of their attacks. They do not dominate possession, as evidenced by their last game where they had 47% possession, but were clinical in front of goal, creating 8 big chances against Angers. They also lean heavily on pressing and winning defensive duels, doing so well with a good percentage of success in tackles won at 72%.

Reims will surely exploit the defensive weaknesses and the poor record of conceding first, especially in the first half of their matches. They will surely press high early in the game to put pressure on Montpellier and break the gaps in their backline.

Meanwhile, Montpellier struggles to recover their form: losers of four of their last five, including a 2-1 defeat to Monaco, they just do not seem to know how to defend this campaign, with 17 goals already shipped this season. There have been times when the structural problems with Montpellier's 4-2-3-1 system have been very clear, especially after going down to 10 men in their last outing following a red card to Tanguy Coulibaly. They have been further heightened by poor discipline and vulnerability on set pieces.

Montpellier also employ a 4-2-3-1 formation but tend to find it hard to dominate the game owing to frailties in the back. Against Monaco in the last game, they only managed 35% possession. That could well be repeated against a more in-form side like Reims. Thus, the chief tactical focus for Montpellier would probably be keeping a low defensive block, trying to soak up the pressure and hit on the counter.

Still, a goal conceded early and first in 9/10 games attest that, for them to avoid this early deficit, they will have to get rid of defensive lapses. Recent disciplinary issues-a red card and frequent fouls-suggest Montpellier might struggle to maintain defensive organization if Reims presses aggressively.

The h2h has been quite balanced between these two sides over recent encounters. Montpellier has a slender edge with 8 wins to Reims' 7 victories, with 5 matches that ended in draws. In the last meeting in April 2024, Montpellier won 2-1 away from home, but given current form, the tables might turn this time around.

This is further emphasized by the fact that 5 of their last 6 meetings have seen both teams on the score sheet. Current form will also support this trend, with "Both Teams to Score", or GG, hitting in most of the recent matches in which Reims and Montpellier have been involved.

Given the current form and tactical dynamics, Stade Reims comes into this match with every reason to be tagged as a clear favorite. The defensive problems that Montpellier faces, coupled with the lack of discipline and a poor run of form, will make containing an erstwhile consistent Reims hard to confront. Reims has looked solid at both ends of the pitch, and recent matches provide reason to believe Montpellier will find it hard to match the intensity of Reims. Expect Reims to win at home.

Considering the goal-scoring run of both teams in their recent games and taking into consideration Montpellier's vulnerability in defense, goals should come from either end.

In the light of recent goal-scoring tendencies of both teams, the match in question is very likely to include more than 2.5 goals.

• Home Win @ 1.769 Odds
• Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.61 Odds
• Correct Score 3-1 @ 12.00 Odds