Stade Brest vs Le Havre Prediction: Stade Brest is too strong for Le Havre

The enticing Ligue 1 match between Brest and Le Havre sees the two teams go mid-table, with eagerness to win points in order to avoid slumping. Brest goes into the match still buoyed by an impressive away victory over Salzburg in the UEFA Champions League by 4-0, while Le Havre hopes to rebound from the sad defeat at home to Lille, wherein it lost 3-0. Both sides have pretty high stakes, looking to steady their ship and improve domestic fortunes.

Brest sit in 13th place currently with two wins and four losses, while Le Havre occupies 15th, also with two wins but reeling from a three-match losing streak. The match comes at a pretty crucial time for both sides. Brest will look to carry the European success into the league.

Brest's approach is based on an offensive fluidity, as we observed against Salzburg. With three forwards, Brest tries to dominate the forward movements of their opponents to take advantage of the free spaces on either flank. Having had only 48% possession in the Champions League win over Salzburg, they were very effective in their direct play, with a high number of long balls played (56%) and crosses into the box (50%). The attacking line of Brest is very offensive and often presses high into the opponent's half in order to score first, which they managed to do in 5 of their last 6 matches. Defensively, the team is good but not unbreachable and has conceded over 2.5 goals in several of the recent matches, showing a little weakness when teams have managed to pass their press.

The success of Brest will be if they can continue the intensity that has seen them perform so well in Europe. Dominating the duels 55%, and shots on target, 6 in their last game would suggest they can create enough chances to test Le Havre's defense, especially as Brest has opened the scoring in five of their last six matches.

Le Havre needs to prevent the team from being dragged further down the table following their downward spiral lately. It is going to be a tactical match since Brest's aggressive and fluid attacking style comes up against the very defense-heavy 5-4-1 formation of Le Havre.

Le Havre will most probably try to play for defense, just like in the last match against Lille. They are likely to lineup in a 5-4-1, and for Havre, that usually means soaking up and looking to catch teams on the break. The problem for them in recent weeks is that this hasn't really worked out as they've lost their last three, conceding at least three in each of those. With a strong tackle success rate of 65% defensive tackles won and a high duel percentage at 49%, Havre's low possession statistics-38% in the last match-and inability to create big chances on a consistent basis-just one big chance against Lille-reveals their limitations in attack.

Their primary goal will be to remain compact, make no early concessions, and try to frustration Brest's fluid forward play. However, their habit of conceding first-usually in six of their last seven games-will be a cause of concern, as falling behind against the in-form Brest side could be costly.

Historically, Brest leads this fixture, with eight wins weighed against Le Havre's four, while seven times these teams have managed to draw, thus meaning a fairly competitive history. However, Brest has not lost any of its last three matches to Le Havre and secured a 1-0 home win in March 2024. Most of the recent matches between these two teams have been low-scoring affairs, with 8 out of their last 10 meetings featuring under 2.5 goals.

The key streaks going into the game slightly favor Brest, as Le Havre has struggled for defensive consistency, conceding in five straight matches, while Brest's recent streak has seen them open the scoring in five from six. Historically, these matches tend to be cagey, low-scoring affairs, which might influence how both sides will approach the game.

Given the current form of Brest, including their excellent Champions League performance, a home win looks most on the cards, while Le Havre's dismal defensive record will ensure they do not keep things very tight at the back. Brest has proved they can start strong and put pressure on the teams visiting them, while Le Havre has failed to hold their opposition at bay.

A decent amount of goals are likely here, given how potent Brest are currently and how fragile Le Havre are in defense. While Brest can blow up for a number of goals, Le Havre's defensive setup should contain the goal total to a respectable amount. A 2-3 goal total is a strong likelihood considering the recent trend by Brest and the over-and-under tendencies by Le Havre.

Le Havre's attack hasn't blown the roof off during their recent outings, creating fewer big chances, and quite often failing to break down more organized defenses. Brest's defense, though not perfect on all counts, should be good enough to keep a clean sheet against the aforementioned Le Havre that failed to score in two of their last three outings.

• Home Win @ 1.834 Odds
• GG (no) @ 1.83 Odds
• Correct Score 2-0 @ 7.50 Odds