Saint-Etienne vs RC Lens Prediction: Battle of Form vs Consistency

On October 19, 2024, two teams of contrasting recent fortunes meet in this crucial Ligue 2 clash as Saint-Etienne hosts RC Lens. While Saint-Etienne is struggling in the mid-table with inconsistency plaguing their season, Lens, despite being undefeated, has been held to a string of draws. Both teams are desperate to claim three points for one to stabilize and the other to bolster their campaigns.

Saint-Etienne come into this fixture in 13th place, fresh from a morale-boosting 3-1 victory over Auxerre. Lens is unbeaten in the league but has failed to turn dominance into victories, drawing five of their last five matches. This is where the game could become a turning point for both.

Saint-Etienne this season stands on unlevel footing, with two wins, one draw, and four losses; it is resting in 13th place. They finally showed attacking potential in their last game, an emphatic 3-1 home win against Auxerre, with Zuriko Davitashvili netting a hat trick. Their recent form suggests that the team is still in search of stability: 2W, 1D, 2L in the last five games. One stat to make out is that Saint-Etienne has often let in the first goal-usually in 7 of 9 matches-a thing that might show potential fragility in defense early in the game.

Saint-Etienne have, for the most part, lined up in a 4-3-3 formation; their attacking play has mainly been through wing play, supplying the attackers. The ability to create big chances was evident in their last game, when they had five big chances and five shots on target. However, it has been evident that the team has been troubled when conceding first, most times lacking to assert themselves early. Their set-piece delivery from wide areas could be a key asset, with them conceding a high amount of fouls and engaging in frequent duels. They are most likely to try to expose Lens' slow start with early pressure.

RC Lens are unbeaten currently, but in 6th place, have appeared stuck in neutral with five straight draws in the league. Their last outing saw them draw 2-2 away to Strasbourg, where they controlled possession but failed to close out the game. Solid at the back, it's the failure to turn draws into wins that is costing Lens dear. The team has not lost this season but also doesn't have a win in their last six games. Their key stat is the over 4.5 cards in four of their last five, showing physical and aggressive play.

Lens will most probably stick to their 3-4-1-2 set up, as it allows them to dominate possession and play through midfield. Long-ball transition games have been the signature of the teams, as seen with their 57% long-ball completion in the last match, and prefer building attacks from deep. Their good percentage regarding tackling is indicative of how they can win most of the midfield tussles and disrupt the rhythm of Saint-Etienne. The Achilles heel of Lens is how they cannot close out games, as shown with five straight draws. They will need to break down Saint-Etienne early, maybe relying on their physicality and counter-attacking play.

Historically, these two have been well matched, with Lens having the slight edge of 9 wins against Saint-Etienne's 7, while 4 matches ended in draws. Lens has not lost to Saint-Etienne in their last four matches. This is definitely a psychological edge going into this match. In their last match, Lens won 2-1 away in January 2022, proof that they are comfortable playing in Saint-Etienne's backyard. The other trend is that Saint-Etienne has let in four goals in their last four matches against Lens, and a factor that could come into this game.

The inconsistency has been a real problem for Saint-Etienne this season. Although they did score three past Auxerre, the defensive record has been poor, conceding first in seven of their nine games this season. This recent victory, though, will have boosted morale, and they may be able to push Lens, especially with how much Lens likes to start a match. Set-piece play and crossing opportunities are where Saint-Etienne can create danger.

Unbeaten, Lens will nonetheless be frustrated by the number of wins that have slipped by them. They are strong through the midfield and more solid in terms of D, which is reflected in their high possession stats and generally strong tackling percentages. However, an inability to shut games out suggests they may struggle to see out a game when ahead. Saint-Etienne has conceded early goals, so the goal will be to strike first for Lens and then lean on their organized backline to keep it in hand.

• 3 Way Total Under 3 Goals @ 1.976 Odds
• Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.88 Odds
• Away Win @ 1.65 Odds