Saint Etienne vs LOSC Lille Prediction: No thrills but Lille should win

Saint-Etienne vs. LOSC Lille is a Ligue 1 match that puts together two teams experiencing quite contrasting fortunes so far in the current season, with their clash coming on 13th September 2024. Saint-Etienne is currently 18th with none won and three losses, while Lille is 6th and will look to get back on track after losing to PSG 3-1. The match at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard is important for either side: Saint-Etienne desperately seek some points to move themselves out of the relegation zone, while Lille are keen to get back to winning ways to push further up the table.

It has been a worry for Saint-Etienne, for whom the last five results read five consecutive losses, and they have failed to score in four of their last five matches. Their away loss to Brest 4-0 underlined a problem that the team is facing, since they had zero shots on target and only 53% possession, meaning problems both in defence and attack. This season, they have conceded in every match, finding themselves behind often at half-time. There's a disconnect in their 4-2-3-1, especially in the final third, where they haven't been creating big chances-non escenario in the last match.

Saint-Etienne's 4-2-3-1 is built to offer stability in the back, though surging forward with three attacking midfielders behind a lone striker. The system has only left them exposed in the back and toothless up front. They have failed to score in four of their last five games-a fair reflection of the poor link-up play and creativity in the final third. This fact alone recently suggests midfield is struggling to progress the ball efficiently into big chances, and they usually always concede early, even finding themselves on the back foot at half-time. Their reliance on counter-attacks and set-pieces has not paid off, and they should, for the most part, set up in a shape with a deeper, more compact approach to not get overwhelmed by the midfield dominance of Lille.

Meanwhile, Lille goes into this match with much better form of the two sides, having won three of their last five matches. Last time out, a 3-1 home defeat to PSG, there were moments of attacking brilliance for Lille but also an awful lot of frailty in defence. Indeed, they fashioned four big chances but were punished for lax defending by PSG. Lille's 3-4-2-1 formation gives them an edge in the wing game, often flooding the midfield with numbers as they press high. They will, however, need to buckle down a bit more in defense, and that 53% tackle success rate against PSG definitely reflected areas for improvement.

Lille's 3-4-2-1 makes them fluid in attack. Big wing-backs press on to give width, while two advanced midfielders give support to the lone striker. This overloads the flanks and can exploit open gaps in the Saint-Etienne defense, particularly in transition. Though potent, Lille's attack has created big chances in most games, but they need to work on their defensive organisation, especially against the lower-ranked teams. The high press will hopefully force Saint-Etienne into mistakes, and Lille will look to dominate possession in the opponent's half. Key for them will be the exploitation of Saint-Etienne's vulnerability to conceding early goals, and keeping control of the tempo through their midfielders.

The historical matches that Saint-Etienne played against LOSC Lille have been closely contested, with the records quite evenly spread between them, evidencing a good fight between these two Ligue 1 teams. In the h2h, Saint-Etienne managed to win 5, Lille won 7 matches, and 8 ended with a draw.

This balanced head-to-head record suggests that both teams have never really had the historic upper hand over their opponents. Lille has a slight edge, with seven wins to the five of Saint-Etienne, but the most frequent outcome has been draws, with eight matches ending all square. This further indicates that they are often close matches that sometimes turn out to be very unpredictable.

With Saint-Etienne in terrible form, not scoring, and often giving away the first goal, Lille may not just win this game but can run riot. Even after a defeat to PSG, Lille's dynamic attack could fracture through Saint-Etienne's shakey defence. The away side is well-simmered, better form and better squad depth making them strong favourites.

While Lille should be favourites, Saint-Etienne may find a goal, possibly from a set-piece or an error in the backline on the part of Lille since many times Lille always lapse in the back. This attacking potency for Lille should be enough to see them through in a very closely contested win.

Also, This match reflects a more conservative outcome of a match where Lille's attack fails to fire on all cylinders, but the solid defensive organization and superior quality see them grind out a narrow win. Given Saint-Etienne's issues in creating chances offensively to this point, likelihood is they'll struggle to break Lille down.

• Away/Draw & Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.71 Odds
• LOSC Lille Win @ 1.76 Odds
• Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.90 Odds