RC Lens vs OGC Nice Prediction: OGC Nice will fight for a draw

This will be an interesting Ligue 1 match between RC Lens and OGC Nice, as both teams want to gain momentum in their respective seasons. Lens come into this match sitting 4th in the league with 2 wins, 3 draws, and no defeats in their last five matches. Lens remain unbeaten in three but have found wins difficult to come by, losing somewhat of the cutting edge in front of goal, as they haven't won in four. Nice sit 7th in the table with two wins, one draw, and two losses from their last five. Still, their recent form has been rather erratic, with defeats contrasting with victories, though they should be boosted with their amazing 8-0 thrashing of St. Etienne in the last outing.

The recent 1-1 away draw at Rennes underlined how solid, unspectacular, Lens' recent form has been. M'Bala Nzola's goal gave them a breakthrough, but slack defending allowed Rennes to level things. Though in control for 60% of possession, Lens managed to get only 3 shots on target and created only 1 big chance, which indicates they struggled to convert dominance into clear opportunities. This focus on tactical discipline is then evidenced by their stats: they won 51% of their duels and 58% of their defensive tackles but committed 20 fouls, showing a gritty approach to defending. There have been under 2.5 goals scored in five of Lens' last matches, displaying tight, low-scoring affairs, but more offensive fluidity will be required if they are to break this winless run.

They usually line up in a 3-4-1-2 formation where, usually, they would want to first rely on a solid defensive shape and then the wingbacks to provide width. The system does allow Lens to maintain possession, as was evident from the 60% dominance against Rennes, but they often struggle to break down compact defenses. Also note how their game is dependent on long balls-35% and crosses at 21%, meaning the team tries to bypass the midfield to find their attackers in advanced areas. This would be evidenced when they created only three shots on target in their last match, hence needing improvement in creativity in the final third. Lens' midfield will seek to take hold of the tempo, but their reliance on physical duels and fouls given away-20-reveals they could struggle against more technically proficient teams like Nice.

Nice come into the game on the back of an 8-0 commanding win over St. Etienne. That was a statement of intent from the dominant display with goals coming from various quarters and a brace coming from Youssoufa Moukoko. They registered 12 shots on target and created 7 big chances, an attacking prowess which Lens will need to be circumspect about. Nice also showed better control over duels won 62%, and defensive tackles won 73%, indicating that they are wasteful neither at the back nor up front. Their tendency to draw first blood in four of their last five games could play as a decisive factor in determining the course the game would take from the outset. Nice's defense has tightened up, having conceded just two goals in their last three games prior to the win over St. Etienne.

Nice will be expected to use the same 4-3-3 formation, where they are able to press high, hold good possession, and overload attacking areas. They have been quite effective in long balls, at 60%, and in duels with 62%, which shows how well they bypass the opposition's press to get into dangerous areas. Nice have been clinical in the last third, 12 shots on target against St. Etienne; creative players in the mould of Sofiane Diop and Tanguy Ndombele will therefore be held in custody as indispensable to open up this Lens defense. Nice's ability to win defensive tackles, with a statistic of 73%, proposes that they might absorb pressure and make good transitions, becoming quite dangerous on the counter-attack.

Historically, Nice have the upper hand in recent encounters; they won against Lens in their last three matches. The last meeting was in March 2024 and ended 3-1 in favor of Nice away from home. Lens have conceded in each of their last three games against Nice, indicating a possible defensive vulnerability when facing Nice's dynamic attack. The only consistent trend, however, has been under 10.5 corners in eight of their last ten meetings, which, according to statistics on both sides, could be the trend going into this match.

Lens' last five matches have seen under 2.5 goals in each, and Nice had struggled for regular goalscoring until that recent thrashing of St. Etienne. This should be a tight, tactical affair with scant few goal scoring opportunities, especially as Lens focus on defensive solidity.

With Lens and Nice both possessing attacking threats despite their defensive records, Lens conceded in their last three matches against Nice, and Nice's high-scoring form from their last game suggests that they will find the net. However, Lens really should be able to respond, particularly given Nice's penchant for allowing chances.

Both teams tend to record fewer corners in games. Most recent fixtures of both Lens and Nice have witnessed less than 10.5 corners, and this should be expected to continue since both teams are likely to rely on quick transitions rather than sustained pressure.

• Under 10 Corners @ 1.667 Odds
• GG & Under 2.5 Goals @ 6.00 Odds
• Correct Score 1-1 @ 6.50 Odds