Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Rennes Prediction: Rennes will stay disciplined in defence

This is an exciting Ligue 1 matchup between PSG and Rennes as two teams coming into the match with different outcomes will go head-to-head. League leaders PSG look to keep their unbeaten start to the season going, while 8th-placed Rennes hope to add some consistency to their imperfect form this season. PSG has traditionally held the edge in this fixture but has often found Rennes an awkward customer. Taking into consideration the form that both teams have been in lately and their tactical approaches, this might be one of those fights which will reveal an interesting battle in regard to possession, pace, and precision.

Coming into this match, PSG is in great form: at the top of Ligue 1, they have recorded 4 wins and 1 draw. In their last outing-a 1-1 away draw to Reims-they showed typical dominance in possession with 78%, while certain inefficiencies in converting chances were palpable. The 4-3-3 format of this team is well-tailored to simply overwhelm opponents with control and fluidity, particularly in wide areas where players like Ousmane Dembélé find their meat.

In the Reims match, PSG created 4 big chances but managed only 1 goal, which shows that there is more they can do in finishing. The ability to control the pace with possession is important, with the team possessing over 79% accuracy in long balls, meaning they progress the ball very well from deep. However, the duel-winning rate at 49% and the tackles won at 50% show that they are not quite as dominant in the physical confrontations, and perhaps here lies an avenue for Rennes to try and dominate.

PSG would want to maintain the high number of possessions, maybe stretching Rennes across the pitch using their wide players. High press to force errors from Rennes' backline, quick transition when they recover possession. A set-piece threat and transitional counter-attacks could also come in handy in this tie. Given Rennes' fragilities in conceding first on 6 of the last 7 occasions, PSG will look to score early and close the game out thereafter.

Rennes have been inconsistent this season and currently lie 8th with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their last match-a 1-1 home draw to Lens-evinced a more reactive approach. Playing in a 3-4-2-1 setup, Rennes were comfortable out of possession-so comfortable, indeed, that they had only 40% of the ball-but could fashion only 1 big chance as they struggled to break down organized defenses consistently.

The strong point of Rennes is the defensive structure and the ability to hit teams on the counter-attack. The three-man defense is able to soak up pressure as wingbacks give width on the counter. Throughout the season, Rennes has struggled to possess the ball in many games but stayed competitive by staying compact, making the most of set-pieces, and quick transitions.

The match-winner against Metz, Arnaud Kalimuendo, will be called upon again in attack to bear the weight of Rennes' attack, particularly to hold up the ball well and make darting runs into space behind the PSG backline.

Rennes will probably be cautious in this game, focusing on solidity in defense and playing deep. They would be looking to make fast counters with the pace of the forwards to use space against PSG's defense during transition phases. Their recent trend of trending under 10.5 corners may indicate that Rennes could avoid too much risk because of set-piece situations. They will try to frustrate PSG by sticking to their shape and hitting on the break once PSG overcommit players forward.

Historically, PSG holds a clear advantage in this fixture: 12 wins against Rennes 6 in the last 20 matches between these teams. When they last met, PSG managed a slim 1-0 win in the Coupe de France back in April 2024, in a match that also saw goals and cards in fairly low numbers-under 2.5 goals and under 4.5 total cards.

This means seven out of the last eight matches between the sides have witnessed less than 2.5 goals, hence indicating that it would be a tight match.

Both teams have preferred keeping the corner numbers low, and this might be the trend in this match.

Therefore, considering the current form, tactical superiority, and home advantage of PSG, the probable winner is PSG; however, a disciplined approach from Rennes with their defensive structure should not allow a high-scoring game.

With the greater quality in attack and midfield, and considering its strong home record, PSG is expected to come out on top.

Given the history, as well as the defensive way Rennes have set up recently, this could be a low-scoring affair.

Both teams have been regularly playing with less than 10.5 corners in the matches; I expect more of the same here.

• Home win & Under 5.5 Goals @ 1.63 Odds
• Home win & Under 4.5 Goals @ 1.91 Odds
• Correct Score 2-0 @ 8.50 Odds