Olympique Lyon vs Nantes Prediction: Lyon have the advantage

Lyon welcomes Nantes to an increasingly timely and fantastic Ligue 1 fixture on October 6, 2024. With Lyon currently sitting 11th in the table and Nantes slightly higher in 7th, this mid-table clash has great implications, with both sides seeking consistency to rise up the standings. Lyon are in pretty fair form with three back-to-back victories, while Nantes has been unpredictable as they do not win easily, though not easily beaten either. Both the sides would attempt an early ascendancy; Lyon would seek to capitalize on home ground advantage, while Nantes would look at their tight defensive structure.

Lyon comes into this match on the back of an inspiring 4-1 away win against Rangers in the Europa League, a contest that showed their attacking flair and growing confidence under their current tactical setup-a 4-1-4-1 formation. Over the last five matches, Lyon has managed to record three wins and one draw with only one loss, which inherently shows momentum development after their early-season stumble. They have been strong, especially in creating chances, as witnessed in the six big chances that they created in their last game. However, they are still fragile in the back, as most of their games present opponents with chances.

In their current system, Lyon emphasize and press high to dominate possession in order to win the ball back quickly. The strong point of Lyon usually is the midfield because they overpower the opponents by passing and dribbling at them. They provide width through full-backs and wingers who push the opposing team's defense wide on. Quick transitions is the main attacking strategy of Lyon with a great emphasis on crosses into the box, promotion of set-pieces. Defensively, they remain a work in process against teams utilizing quick counterattacks.

While Nantes have been in rather uncertain form. Their recent home match against St. Etienne ended 2-2 and explained much about their strength and weakness: the team are not bad but very leaky in defense. Balance is key for Nantes playing in a 4-2-3-1 system, who require a strong midfield pivot. Three of their last five matches have been draws and are currently on a three-game winless streak. They are one of those few teams in the league who start fast, managing to score the first goal in each of their last five matches. They are also prone to conceding, especially when sitting back late in the games. Their form has taken a hit with the red card given to Marcus Coco in the last match, in that it might disrupt their tactic for this game.

They play a solid 4-2-3-1 formation, which will enable them to be solid defensively while having numbers in midfield to gain possession of the ball. With two holding midfielders, they would be able to frustrate teams by closing up space in front of the back four. They do, however, depend on long balls to bypass the press of the opposition, and they use wingers to exploit wide areas. They frequently fashion goalscoring opportunities through set-pieces and crosses in attack, but one clear failing has come in the form of failing to hold onto leads, with late concessions especially undermining their cause of late. Their consistently good and rather impressive ability to be the first team to score in matches has thus remained a set feature.

Historically, Lyon has always been the more dominant of the two sides in this fixture, with a record 12 wins from the last 20 games, three to Nantes, and five ending in stalemates. The most recent meeting between these two teams came in April 2024, where Lyon won away 3-1. In fact, recent history suggests that these matches usually tend to be low-scoring, given how in the last five matches, under 2.5 goals have come up four times. Discipline has also been kept in check, as less than 4.5 cards were issued in seven of their last nine meetings.

But the ability of Nantes to stay competitive and infuriate Lyon has not passed over during the last seasons. Even though Lyon is an outstandingly quality side, Nantes have kept a lot of games tight and often relies on counter-attacks and set-pieces to unsettle Lyon's defense.

Lyon comes into this match with better form, having won their last three matches including an excellent performance in European competition. Nantes is higher in the standings but hasn't won in three and will be missing a key player due to suspension. More so, after a convincing win in Europe, the momentum will be on the side of Lyon.

Lyon have been quite good at home this season, and most importantly, they are capable of running the show when in front of their home fans. On the other hand, Nantes are always inconsistent away from home, which may be a problem against a high-rhythm Lyon.

This might weaken Nantes' right-hand side and could be something Lyon will try to exploit-especially with Marcus Coco's suspension given the red card in the last outing against St. Etienne. On the other hand, Lyon has no key suspension worries, meaning they can select a full-strength squad to add to the tactical flexibility.

Lyon's attack, often relying on wing play and overlapping fullbacks, has to give Nantes fits with their best wide defender unavailable. The visitors might struggle to keep Lyon from catching them on the counter, as their midfield does feel a bit weak while they might fail to create regular opportunities against Lyon's pressing game.

• Home Win @ 1.823 Odds
• GG (yes) @ 1.70 Odds
• Correct Score 2-1 @ 8.50 Odds