Olympique Lyon vs Auxerre Prediction: Ligue 1 Battle in Décines-Charpieu; Lyon Eyes Consistency Against a Streaky Auxerre Side

Olympique Lyon hosts AJ Auxerre in an important Ligue 1 match on October 27, 2024. Both teams are trying to hold onto a spot inside the top dozen, with Lyon standing in 7th and Auxerre in 12th. Under Pierre Sage, Lyon has had a good domestic season, currently with a record of four wins, one draw, and three losses. Auxerre have been inconsistent under Christophe Pelissier, but the inconsistency can sometimes make them tricky opponents. This is going to be an exciting game, indeed, with Lyon trying to bounce back from that narrow Europa League defeat to Lisbon and Auxerre planning to carry on with the momentum of two victories in the last five matches.

Lyon currently sit 7th in the Ligue 1 table-a position that doesn't quite illustrate how well they can play. With a record of four wins, one draw, and three losses, Lyon's recent domestic form has been quite good, even though their 1-0 loss to Besiktas showcased some vulnerabilities. Manager Pierre Sage's team are disciplined and tactically well-drilled, usually taking the lead in a match and commanding possession, evinced by the fact that his team has averaged 58% possession while creating a high amount of big chances.

Lyon's recent form under Pierre Sage has relied on possession play and ball progression through the midfield, with the 4-2-3-1 shape allowing them to dominate games through their two in midfield, while also moving the ball quickly to the creative forwards. In recent matches, this Lyon attack has been great at creating big chances, even if they did struggle to finish them against Besiktas. Lyon's strong point is knowing how to score first, using the early stages of the match to drive the opponent's rear into disarray. This discipline in defense, combined with an efficient tackling of 67%, makes a complete team ready to contain any kind of attack the guests from Auxerre might have in store for them.

Auxerre has had a torrid season under Christophe Pelissier, amassing three wins and five losses thus far; their recent win against Reims may signal a change in fortunes, as the history of high-scoring matches has them coming into Lyon looking to press its defense.

Auxerre is in high contrast to Lyon regarding the approach they take onto the pitch; most of their work is done on structured defending and transitions, both of which have been made possible by a compact structure like 3-4-2-1. Christophe Pelissier's Auxerre has often shown that they give away possession but do well at transitional moments. Having averaged just 36% possession in their last outing, Auxerre makes sure they are efficient in front of goal, something which is pretty evident from the high-scoring matches they are on. The idea behind their approach is to disturb the opponents in the middle third and pounce on any quick counterattack to capitalize on openings that might be left by a team like Lyon, who would feel obligated to press forward.

Historically, Olympique Lyon has dominated this matchup with 12 wins to Auxerre's 3, while 5 matches have ended in draws. Recent clashes have shown how Auxerre can trouble Lyon as evidenced by the eventual 2-1 victory in February 2023. The clashes have also trending towards high-scoring affairs, given the last five meetings between them have seen over 2.5 goals. Also, both teams have managed to get on the scoreboard often: in 5 of their last 7 matches, BTTS has occurred, while in 9 out of their last 10 matches, less than 4.5 cards were shown, evidencing that neither of the two teams has usually adopted a very hard approach.

Given that and the high level of possession, Lyon enter the match as favorites, with their defensive solidity-high tackle success rate-curtailing any transition chance for Auxerre. Lyon did reveal some inefficiency in offense in their recent loss against Besiktas, however, which may pressure them with counterattacks if they do not capitalize on their chances early. It might be a factor to consider that, in most of the matches, Lyon scores first, while Auxerre has been inconsistent in defending leads.

Auxerre, though, has momentum on its side with a fresh win in their kitty and having shown a penchant for high-scoring games evident in their six consecutive matches with over 2.5 goals. If they can withstand Lyon's initial pressure and remain compact in their 3-4-2-1 setup, Auxerre does have the offensive tools to test Lyon's defense, especially if they find space on the break.

• Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.705 Odds
• GG & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.11 Odds
• Correct Score 2-1 @ 8.50 Odds