OGC Nice vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction: PSG are desperate for a win

The visitors will be welcomed by OGC Nice in an attractive Ligue 1 encounter at home on October 6, 2024. The match will be very aggressive from both teams, as the teams want to make sure of a decent position in the early stage of the season. Nice is currently 9th in the table and has been coming off a poor run of form in recent matches, with a significant Europa League defeat at Lazio. Meanwhile, PSG are lying 2nd in the table but have a game in hand and are still smarting from a Champions League loss to Arsenal.

Of course, there is much at stake in this match, considering that Nice must urgently reverse their fortunes from recent losses, and for PSG, it will be important in the light of taking back the top spot and resuming their relentless charge in Ligue 1. The tactical battle comes full circle, with the more conservative and disciplined approach by Nice meeting the attacking firepower of PSG.

Nice's erratic form is equally divided in both domestic and European competition, with the team managing to get a single win in the last five games to go along with a couple of draws and two losses. The most recent encounter was quite difficult for the team too as they lost in the Europa League 4-1 against Lazio. In the back, they have shown vulnerabilities while their attack is creative in play, but inefficient at finishing off their goal chances, hence finding themselves in mid-table.

Nice will most probably be more compact and defensive, with three central defenders as their means to cope with PSG's attacking power. Wingbacks will also feature duties in both keeping the shape while pushing forward to support the attack-trying to overload in wide areas where possible. However, their midfield will have a key role in holding possession and turning this into quick transitions. They had 60% possession against Lazio in the last outing but were always susceptible to counterattacks. The key in keeping PSG at bay would be the manner in which they repel the visitors' pace and intricate passing in wide areas.

Nice's form is a cause for concern: their only win in the last five outings means they have a poor defensive record, and to take on PSG will be an uphill task. The thrashing they received in the Europa League at Lazio probably dampened their spirits, and while they create openings, they score beneath their expectations.

Of course, Nice have home-field advantage, and their recent form at home has been spotty. The Nice crowd may give them that extra boost, but the experience and depth of PSG should cut down much of that home-field advantage.

Meanwhile, PSG have been in far better form in Ligue 1 with wins in five and a draw in one of the opening six fixtures. However, their 2-0 defeat at Arsenal in the Champions League did reveal some chinks in their armor about how possession should be transformed into clear-cut chances. But be that as it may, PSG are still one of the topmost teams in France, especially in their national league, considering that an attacking trio has been hard for most teams to stop.

PSG will most likely maintain their usual 4-3-3 setup, and just as always, they will be looking to move the ball quickly and pass it around. On paper, an attacking trio may seek to exploit Nice's back three with pace and running into the spaces. The PSG midfield will look to hold possession, just like in their recent game against Arsenal, where they enjoyed majority possession but created little or nothing in terms of goalscoring opportunities. They are likely to be more clinical in Ligue 1, where they have had greater success breaking down teams with disciplined defenses. Full-backs will also be pivotal in providing width, allowing the forwards to drift inside and overload the central areas.

The defeat to Arsenal is an anomaly for PSG as they have totally dominated Ligue 1 this season. The confidence that arises from a superior possession game and dynamic attacking options should put pressure on Nice. Even away, PSG often matches the level of their performance even against subpar domestic teams.

PSG want to get back to the top of Ligue 1 and can't really afford to falter in the process, not with Marseille and Monaco also in the title hunt. Normally, given the history of this fixture, there would be reason for confidence from PSG.

Historically, this has been a one-sided fixture with PSG being the dominant force. Over the last 20 meetings between these two teams, there have been 13 wins for PSG against Nice's four victories, with three ending in draws. The French champions have also been more clinical in the recent meetings between themselves and Nice, coming into this game with four victories in the last five matches. The last of those five came in May of 2024 when they managed to overpower Nice's backline to take a 2-1 win.

PSG score the first goal in most matches, having done so in 4 out of the last 5 meetings. Both teams have scored in 4 of the last 5 encounters. Over 2.5 goals have also been seen in 4 out of 5 matches. In addition, the first half of this match has mostly been won by PSG.

Given the difference in form and class between the two teams, the home team is likely to be firm favorites going into this tie. Nice have been pretty shaky at the back this campaign, and attacking acumen from the home team should prove a bit too much for them.

Recent fixtures between these sides have often seen goals, and considering Nice's defensive frailties and PSG's attacking strengths, a range of 2-4 seems likely. Nice can score, especially at home, and PSG have conceded in their last three games in all competitions. Both teams scoring is a likely outcome. With the attack of PSG and the inconsistent defense of Nice, this should easily see over three goals.

A 3-1 scoreline seems about right considering the gulf in quality between the teams and recent defensive problems for Nice. There should be joy for PSG's attackers against Nice's back three, although a consolation could be grabbed by Nice.

• Away Win @ 1.726 Odds
• Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.65 Odds
• Correct Score 1:3 @ 13.00 Odds