Montpellier vs Toulouse Prediction: Two Underperforming Teams Battle for Redemption as Relegation Looms in Ligue 1 Showdown

This match on October 27, 2024, brings Montpellier and Toulouse together in an Ligue 1 fixture that has become crucial for either of the teams desiring a course correction in their season. The home team is lying in 18th place, while Toulouse is somewhat better off, only in 15th place, hence throwing them in an intense fight near the relegation zone, each fending for a lifeline. The stakes are high with each team struggling for form and hence seeking three critical points in this match. Montpellier heads into this tie with a quite deplorable defensive record, having suffered a string of unimpressive defeats, whereas Toulouse comes off a run of draws and close games where they failed to win but showed some signs of resilience.

So far, Montpellier have had a torrid campaign, managing to win just one of their eight matches, a record that has seen them reeling in the relegation zone. Their last outing was a dispiriting 5-0 loss to Marseille, which exposed frailties on both sides of the ball. Defensive frailties, especially with the suspension of Stefan Dzodic for a red card, have put further strain on Michel Der Zakarian's team. Montpellier, on the other hand, need to fix their structure in the backline and in the attacking configuration as they have won once only in their last five games.

Both have often favored a 4-2-3-1 formation this season, but deploy it very differently: the Montpellier of Der Zakarian has relied on long balls and crosses, using their possession in fits and starts. But their tactics have so often left them open, especially when on the front foot, with them regularly leaking early goals and then failing to come back. There is a complete lack of cohesion in defensive organization, with the team failing to hold its shape during most parts of the game, especially when countered by sides with quick technical players.

While Toulouse is higher in the table, they have also found it tough in recent weeks with just one win, three draws, and four losses. The most recent encounter saw them draw 1-1 against Angers. The performance of Yann Gboho was brilliant in that game with his creativity, but the finishing issues persisted. The team has also not won in four straight matches; however, a robust team performance, along with some tactical refinement in recent weeks, courtesy of Carles Martinez, has lent Toulouse an approach that has made their performance more consistent.

Toulouse, under Martinez, try to be more controlled and possess the ball more. Recently, against Angers, they held 66% of it. With such strategy, Toulouse manages the tempo of the game to a minimum of defensive risks. Where they have struggled is in turning dominance into clear-cut chances. Reaching Gboho's creativity, Toulouse cuts through defenses with passes into the box rather than overload the box. Finishing, though, remains inconsistent.

Traditionally, Montpellier has had the upper hand in this fixture: 11 of the last 20 meetings have seen the away side come out on top; Toulouse has won seven, and two matches have ended all square. Recent history has been skewed in favor of Montpellier, too, as they have won the last three. Their last outing in May 2024 finished 2-1 in favor of Montpellier, in a sequence where both teams have consistently scored and action-packed with over 2.5 goals scored in each of the last ten matchups. Toulouse has also proven rather consistent in these matches, allowing their opponents to score, as many as five times in the last six head-to-heads.

Given the form of both sides, Montpellier will be keen to make amends for their recent defensive mistakes, most notably the heavy defeat to Marseille. The suspension of Stefan Dzodic therefore isn't helpful to this backline which has already tended to buckle under pressure at times this season. Still, Montpellier's decent recent record in this fixture and tendency to improve a little at home may prove inspiring. Zakarian will most likely enforce an aggressive start to try and get something from Toulouse's struggles of keeping clean sheets this season.

Where Toulouse are more settled, they also lack the clinical edge required to make the most of their long spells of possession. Gboho has been one of the standout performers in recent games, and much of the creativity in breaking down Montpellier's fragile backline will fall upon his shoulders. Toulouse could look to exploit Montpellier's love of playing long balls by pressing high to win the ball back early and putting Montpellier on the back foot.

• Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.79 Odds
• GG (yes) @ 1.62 Odds
• Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Odds