Montpellier vs Olympique Marseille Prediction: Olympique Marseille Aim to Capitalize on Montpellier’s Defensive Woes

On October 20, 2024, Montpellier will take on Olympique Marseille in an exciting Ligue 1 duel. The home team, sitting in 17th place with barely any breathing space above the relegation zone, desperately needs points to avoid sliding down completely. For the last five games, the team has been performing abysmally, with only one win under its belt and that against Reims with a score of 4-2 against them. Meanwhile, Olympique Marseille sit pretty in 3rd place, and the great run of form they have enjoyed has consolidated them as serious contenders for European qualification this season. While both sides will look to showcase their talents, their different approaches to tactics and the current form of each team indicate that this game may be a tough fixture for Montpellier to navigate.

This campaign has shown the frailties at the back for Montpellier, who have shipped in 18 goals in the last six outings. They have lost four of the last five matches as they showed an inability to hold firm at the back despite some sporadic attacking brilliance. Their latest defeat to Reims saw them lose 4-2 and showed just how vulnerable this team can be when exposed on the counter.

Under Michel Der Zakarian, Montpellier often line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation. Their main focus has been on counter-attacking football, using their pace on the flanks and trying to hit teams quickly after soaking up pressure. But that has also made them very vulnerable in defense, as a lot of times they concede an early goal in a match. Often, Montpellier does not control games and gets to long balls; in the last match, 51% of the long balls were completed. Inconsistent press intensity resulted in more lost duels than won. Arnaud Nordin, who stood out as a performer in the defeat to Reims, grabbed a brace, but individual brilliance is not going to paper over the cracks in this poor side.

Meanwhile, Olympique Marseille is a team that will feel pretty good coming into this one, having lost just once in five. When they have been on top, they have been built from the back, often rallying on an effective defensive structure while creating some exciting things upfront. Monaco's last outing was a 1-1 draw against Angers, but with Neal Maupay's red card blurring the result, they will hope to improve and keep the heat on the two teams above them in the league standings.

Roberto De Zerbi's Marseille line up in a 4-2-3-1, but with a far more possession-based approach. Monaco boss the ball, dominating possession 76% against Angers, and are disciplined at the back, winning an impressive 60% of their duels while excelling at tackles with a success rate of 82%. Monaco is good at maintaining dominance in midfield, creating intricate passing patterns, which has been the key to their good start. They like to pull on the opposition, especially with overlapping full-backs and midfield runners, but can change through gears quickly if needed. Still, they put very little pressure on Angers' goal, failing to fashion any real clear cut chances, which they will certainly need to be far more clinical against a leaky Montpellier defense.

The head-to-head between the sides has been really one-sided in favor of Marseille, with the latter managing wins in 10, drawing 7, and losing just 3 in the last 20 matches against Montpellier. This season, when both teams last met in February 2024, Marseille had a jolly good 4-1 win to underline their clear dominance over their opponents. Indeed, the disciplined defense of Marseille has been hard for Montpellier to break as they have managed just one win in their last 10 meetings. Marseille extended their unbeaten run to 11 games against Montpellier and now face another opportunity to take that run even further.

Key trends suggest this could go down a similar route in terms of formations: Montpellier have conceded 11 goals in their last five matches against Marseille, with both teams consistently involved in games where both teams have scored - GG in nine of the last ten meetings. Of intrigue too is that cards and corners have also featured, with under 4.5 cards occurring in six of their last seven meetings and over 10.5 corners in five of the last seven.

Montpellier come into this game on the back of a torrid run of form, losing four of their last five matches and conceding 18 in their last six games. Their defensive frailties-let alone in the first half of matches-will make it difficult to see them competing against a well-organized and dangerous Marseille side. Though missing Neal Maupay due to suspension, Marseille should have enough firepower to break down the shaky Montpellier defense.

With such a disciplined approach from Marseille, who can keep possession, should see them totally dominating the game. The only hope for Montpellier perhaps would be sitting deep and hitting on counters or hoping some set-piece or some defensive error presents them with an opening. Poor recent record: Having conceded first in 9 of the last 10 games makes it hard to see them keeping Marseille at bay for long.

• Away Win/Draw + Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.97 Odds
• GG + Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Odds
• Away Win @ 1.72 Odds