Montpellier vs Auxerre Prediction: Don’t expect too many goals

Both sides struggling, Montpellier and Auxerre, go head-to-head in the Ligue 1 encounter on September 22, 2024. Montpellier is in dire form as it sits 18th in the table with no wins so far in this season. Auxerre sits a little higher in 15th place with one win but also faces inconsistencies. Both teams are desperate for a positive result, knowing very well that this is an opportunity to reverse their current fortune and nail crucial points at the beginning of the season to avoid being mired in a relegation struggle.

Poor start to the season for Montpellier, with no wins - 0W 1D 3L - establishes a trend of consecutive losses that has mounted to three matches currently. In fact, it has turned into an 11-game winless run across all competitions. This defeat, coming against Rennes 3-0, pointed to various issues: lack of creativity in attack - 0 big chances - and some really leaky defense, as they conceded 15 goals in 4 games. Poor Montpellier's 4-2-3-1 system didn't yield enough forward impetus; there were only four shots on target, and long balls and crosses were also poorly executed at 64% and 13%, respectively. Also, they have managed to fall behind in every single match this season.

It was a balanced 4-2-3-1 formation that Montpellier prefers to deploy whenever possible, but recent performances have shown some serious structural weaknesses both in and out of possession. Their defense has been fragile, and despite the possession, they hardly transform it into concrete occasions-least for what happened against Rennes, in which they had 49% of the possession. They have also shown some resilience with 57% of the defending tackles won but struggle to win duels-52%-and deal with set-piece situations. Long balls and crosses offensively suggest a direct style of play; accuracy, however, has been only 64% and 13% success rate, respectively. Inefficient due to a lack of proper service to the lone striker.

This could tactically mean a change in formation for Montpellier, more focused on the tightening of the defense, and, if that would be needed, on a more cautious approach, with counter-attacks attempting to expose Auxerre's weaknesses on the wings. This could benefit them, with two holding midfielders screening their fragile backline while also using pace down the flanks to stretch Auxerre's defense.

Auxerre has also been having a rough season with 1W 0D 3L, and they recently suffered a humiliating 3-0 home loss to Monaco. Tactically, it was disastrous against Monaco as the 3-4-2-1 formation did not work out at all because the visitors earned just 41% possession and had just one corner in that match. Indeed, Auxerre's defense has been porous, having conceded five goals in the last three matches, while the midfield has poorly controlled matches, winning just 39% of duels. After a run of three straight defeats, Auxerre will look to firm up the back-but against a Montpellier team that has also been leaking goals with quite alarming regularity.

Auxerre's 3-4-2-1 formation enables them to defend with a back three while advancing wingbacks provide width, but this hasn't exactly been bringing about any amount of success recently. Their reliance on the long ball for 49% of the time suggests they're also direct in their approach, though again they aren't using the width as much as they should be, completing just 6% of crosses in their last match. Additionally, their midfield isn't very physical and also doesn't have control, which can be gauged from 39% duels won in that area and thus may find it hard to hold on to possession and command the game.

Auxerre may be looking to turn to a more conservative 3-5-2 or even a 5-4-1, focus on flooding the midfield, disrupting Montpellier's passing lanes. Considering how often Montpellier concede first, Auxerre could look at striking early and then adopting a low block to frustrate their opponents. It is worth targeting Montpellier's flanks since their full-backs like to get forward, which leaves space behind.

Montpellier has managed to secure 7 wins; so has Auxerre, while 6 matches have ended in draws. This suggests a competitive fixture history, although Montpellier has been in better form lately. In the last encounter between these two sides back in January 2023, Montpellier managed to claim a 2-0 away from home.

In the last 8 meetings between these two sides, both teams have scored in 6 of those matches, showing that matches involving them are mostly open and with goals at both ends.

The matches between Montpellier and Auxerre have often tended to be pretty clean, with less than 4.5 cards shown in nine of the last ten matches.

Auxerre have conceded in each of their last 4 matches against Montpellier, exposing their fragility in the backline when up against them.

Given both teams are in poor form and unable to fashion clear opportunities - Montpellier did not create a single big chance against Rennes while Auxerre boast one of the worst conversion rates - this is unlikely to be a high-scoring game. Recent games involving Montpellier have been low on goals as they have failed to score in their last two; Auxerre similarly struggled for goals in their 3-0 loss to Monaco.

Montpellier didn't score in their last outing and were largely unimaginative, while Auxerre's attack has been hit-or-miss this season. Banking on a low-scoring affair with one of the sides possibly failing to score.

Montpellier have been conceding first in every game this season 8/, and this does indeed look very likely to continue against an Auxerre side that will be relishing the opportunity of capitalising on Montpellier's defensive frailties.

• Total Under 3 Goals @ 1.6 Odds
• GG (No) @ 2.27 Odds
• Total Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Odds