Le Havre vs LOSC Lille Prediction: Lille will win despite poor form

Matchday 6 of Ligue 1 sees Le Havre host LOSC Lille on the 28th of September 2024. Coming off a 3-1 loss against AS Monaco, 12th-placed Le Havre will want to get back up again. A win will be desperately needed for a five-game streak without a victory after a miserable run of form has them lying in the league standings.

Le Havre has recently been inconsistent, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches. In their last defeat, a 3-1 loss away to Monaco, Le Havre showed how they give their way to defense, as the possession rate was 38%, creating no major scoring opportunities; they didn't have much to look at upfront, too, since the team had only 3 shots on target. The defeat at Monaco was also the third straight match in which they let in three goals, pointing towards a defense that has no structure against better teams.

Daler Kuzyaev has become one of Le Havre's most consistent players this campaign. He scored their only goal against Monaco and often operates as the chief creative force in the team. However, his efforts are often undermined by the defensive vulnerabilities that haven't been helped by much support upfront.

Le Havre's set up should be based on congesting the midfield and playing for possession, but recent performances have shown that they cannot maintain the ball for long periods of time against a strong opposition. In their defeat at Monaco, their three-man defense was stretched and they allowed the opposition to dominate. The Le Havre midfield, who had only 38% possession and failed to create any big chances, didn't connect the play from defence to attack, leaving their forward line very isolated. Kuzyaev's presence in midfield is still their main source of creativity, but Le Havre's focus will need to be on tightening their defensive shape if they are to avoid being overrun by Lille's attacking players.

Lille are an unsettled side currently, with just one win in five matches, but their last game-a thrilling 3-3 draw against Strasbourg-was a source of encouragement. Though dominating possession 64% and fashioning 4 big chances, the defensive problems persist, having conceded 5 goals across their last two matches. Failure to manage clean sheets has been the basic reason for their deterioration on the table. With a solid attacking force led by Jonathan David and Edon Zhegrova, Lille are still dangerous in front of the goal.

Jonathan David scored one from the penalty spot in the 3-3 draw, and Zhegrova contributed a brace. This attacking pair will be very vital in breaking down Le Havre's defense, considering the latter's penchant for early conceded goals.

Lille is expected to dominate possession as they did in their last outing against Strasbourg with 64%. Their 4-2-3-1 set up is heavily reliant on the creative freedom given to the wide players that often presents Zhegrova's excellent form. Jonathan David's capability of dropping deep and linking up play with midfielders adds another dimension to their attack. However, Lille's defensive structure has been quite porous as the high line has left them open to counter-attacks and transitions.

Lille enjoy a dominant historical advantage over Le Havre, having won in the last 6 meetings between the two sides. Le Havre is yet to register a win in this fixture, while Lille have gone unbeaten in the last 7 outings between the two teams. Indeed, this was a replay of what happened last time out in February 2024, when Lille did win comfortably 3-0 at home, a result which further described the gap in quality between the two teams.

With Le Havre going to try to exploit Lille's bad form of late, they still remain fragile at the back and toothless up front. Lille, on the other hand, will be keen on making possession dominance count with a much-needed victory. A tactical game of sorts may follow, but given Lille's better individual quality and head-to-head dominance, expect a victory for the visitors.

Le Havre has struggled for goals this season; they had only 3 shots on target against Monaco. Lille's attack is strong, and considering how the previous meeting between the two sides ended 3-0 in favor of Lille as they shut Le Havre out, it could be another tense day for Le Havre in front of the net.

Both teams have shown a trend for games with few corners: Lille had 9/10 under 10.5 corners, Le Havre had 4/5; and a high number is unlikely considering the probable tactics.

• Under 10 Corners @ 1.615 Odds
• GG (No) @ 1.82 Odds
• Away Win @ 1.75 Odds