AS Monaco vs Montpellier Prediction: Monaco is the better team all round

Monaco against Montpellier on September 28, 2024, will be an interesting match between the two teams because of their contrasting form. Monaco is currently in 3rd place, undefeated this season with 4 wins and 1 draw in tow, while Montpellier lies in 15th place, in a rut due to inconsistency at 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses. Monaco enter this match on the back of an impressive 3-1 win over Le Havre, while Montpellier was resolute enough to record a narrow 3-2 victory over Auxerre.

They have been flying high, especially with strong performances both in defense and attack. Monaco is known for their clear structure and how they can impose control on games, especially when at home. They did dominate possession in their last match, 62%, and managed to show their capacity for the creation of goal-scoring chances with 2 big opportunities against Le Havre. This trio of Jordan Teze, Eliesse Ben Seghir, and Folarin Balogun could bring the needed dynamism and firepower to overwhelm many Ligue 1 defenses.

Monaco's unbeaten run of late and the three-game win streak showed them in good form. Much of the time, their home advantage is important to them, where they usually dominate the game through possession and solid defensive structure. The fact that they have managed to score first in all matches this season speaks volumes about their fast start to games and tactical discipline. Then, the team has a 4-4-2 proposition, offering attacking fluidity with defensive solidity, strong midfield control, wide players giving attacking width. Monaco has been in excellent condition against duels during the match, winning 63% duels against Le Havre, and this aggressive game will be important against an out-of-form Montpellier defense. Their efficiency at set pieces, the fact that they won 6 corners in the last game alone, their ability to minimize defensive errors to a minimum as evident from 0 goalkeeper saves being required to be made against Le Havre, everything points to an almost all-round side with minimum weaknesses. They also remain attentive at the back, with the average of cards lower than 4.5 and conceded fouls few.

Monaco will look to continue with their high possession in an attempt to find lapses in Montpellier's defense. In a 4-4-2, they can attack with waves as the wingers stretch the play, creating space for players like Balogun and Ben Seghir to make runs in behind. They will be ready to start well and press Montpellier early to take hold of the game. They will be looking to capitalize on Montpellier's vulnerabilities at the back with their aerial threat from set-pieces.

The key to their approach will be how they remain disciplined at the back, keeping Montpellier's attack at bay, limiting opportunities in front of Akor Adams. Midfield dominance for Monaco, coupled with strength in the duels, is something that is going to be important if the French team is to suffocate Montpellier's forward play.

Montpellier, on the other hand, has gotten off to a very rocky start to the season. Aside from their last win, they have been fragile in defense, having let in a total of 16 goals so far this season. Up front, their reliance has been upon the contributions of Akor Adams, who scored a brace in their recent 3-2 win against Auxerre. Montpellier's biggest weakness has been the poor start to matches; they have gone behind first in all nine of their matches this season.

While that is as exciting as it sounds, Montpellier have a very worrying tendency of letting in goals in bunches and, more often than not, going behind early into matches. This trend of failing to keep clean sheets may be worsened by the lingering defensive fragility of the team coupled with inconsistent winning of duels; this was evident against Auxerre, where the team managed to win only 58% of duels. Playing in a 4-2-3-1 formation has given them space in the middle of the park and has contributed to their ineptitude in stopping opposition teams, especially in transition. It has been a habit that they tend to lose the first half of every match and concede the first goal, which keeps them always at the receiving end and forces them to play reactive football rather than proactive.

Offensively, Akor Adams is their talisman, but over-reliance on him makes Montpellier's attacks one-dimensional. Though their crossing game is relatively low at 17%, they do forge big chances every time they surge forward, but the steely moments of attacking promise get buried under the rubble of defensive deficiencies.

Montpellier will be compact, tight at the back, and look to catch Monaco on the counter. They may try to take advantage of some space that Monaco's full-backs would be leaving when they go forward, before using some of the pace of Adams in order to create quick opportunities. In what should be a 4-2-3-1 formation, Montpellier must make sure their defensive midfielders are capable of providing adequate cover to prevent Monaco's rapid transitions.

Montpellier will also want to stay in the game for as long as possible, trying to score on set pieces or capitalizing on defensive errors from Monaco. But with their problems at the back, their main challenge will be how to keep Monaco off the score line early, which would force them into an open and riskier kind of game.

Monaco has been leading the rivalry with Montpellier from previous meetings. Within their last 20 matches, Monaco won 11 times, while Montpellier secured 4 victories and 5 ended in a draw.

Monaco usually makes a great start in these fixtures, scoring first in five of the last seven meetings against Montpellier. The last time they played against each other was in early September 2024, when Monaco visited their opponents and won 2-0 away, further underlining their superiority in this matchup.

Monaco have also had the benefit of home advantage in the head-to-head success. Poor form from Montpellier's point of view against top teams, and also in defending lately, means Monaco are likely to hold an edge in this match too.

With Monaco's all-round squad, defensive discipline, and attacking flair, it should prove a bit too much for a Montpellier side that has struggled to find cohesion and consistency at the back. Sometimes the attack of Montpellier can catch one cold, but the manner in which Monaco can manage to control the game and catch them early will be what seals this game. Monaco will prolong their unbeaten run with a professional performance.

Montpellier has seen over 2.5 goals in each of their last ten matches, with nine yielding more than two goals. With Monaco in good attacking form and Montpellier presenting a leaky defense, there is a very big possibility that the match will feature more than three goals.

Meanwhile, Monaco has opened the scoring in all seven matches this season, while Montpellier has conceded first in all nine. Given that Monaco is more than capable of dominating possession and creating early chances, they are very likely to continue this trend.

• Home Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Odds
• Home (0:1) Handicap @ 1.88 Odds
• Folarin Balogun to Score Anytime @ 1.95 Odds