Angers SCO vs Nantes Prediction: Nantes to snatch a narrow win

The match between Angers and Nantes on September 22, 2024, is an interesting encounter between the two contrasting teams, since Angers are struggling near the relegation zone, lying in 17th place without a win this season, whereas Nantes is doing well in 5th place and trying to strengthen their grip on the European spots. Both sides are badly in need of the points, but for various reasons, because while Angers need them to get themselves out of the relegation fight, Nantes want to keep pace with the top teams.

Angers have had quite an underwhelming start to the 2024-25 Ligue 1 season, failing to win any of the first four matches. In their last five matches, they have lost four times and drawn once, the latter coming against Strasbourg with a scoreline of 1-1. Though they showed some resilience in that game, the fact that they had 49% possession and only two shots on target implies a real lack of cutting edge to turn draws into wins. They have been fragile at the back, conceding nine in their last five outings, and have fallen behind first in each of them.

On the tactical front, Angers have continued with a 4-2-3-1 format that is theoretically designed to offer both defensive solidity and width in attack. However, stats show that they have struggled in both departments. Average possession has been below 50%, they've struggled to create big chances-just one against Strasbourg. Their reliance is on long balls at 29% and crosses at 22%, which stipulates a direct approach, but that has translated into sustained attacking pressure or goals. The defensive stats, such as 50% of duels won and 72% of tackles won, suggest a side that is fighting hard but not controlling games.

Angers would be unlikely to depart from their usual 4-2-3-1 formation, where they try to remain compact and then strike Nantes on the counter-attack. The central midfield pairing will be very important in destroying Nantes' buildup of play, while Angers will be dependent on wide players to provide attacking impetus with their crosses into the box. However, over-reliance on long balls and a lack of creativity in midfield might prove costly against a well-organized Nantes side.

Defensively, Angers will need to be more focused, having leaked nine goals in four matches to be very vulnerable, more so early in the games, as evidenced by their record of losing the first half in four of their last five matches. They need to stay compact and avoid early concessions if they hope to get any result here.

While the visitors have had a good kick-off in this season, comfortably seated at 5th with two wins, one draw, and one loss, Nantes lost narrowly to Reims 2-1 in the last match but are much more promising with two wins out of their last five games. Nantes have been decent going forward, scoring first-usually in 9 out of their last 10 games-and showing great resilience in tight games. Their match against Reims did prove that they can indeed create opportunities, having six shots on target for a possession rate of 45%.

Like Angers, Nantes have also used the 4-2-3-1 formation, but a bit more effectively. They are more reliant on long balls at 47% and crosses at 38% this season, but this directness has brought more fortunate results. With players like Douglas Augusto contributing goals, Nantes are dangerous in transition and on set pieces. They are disciplined defensively, as evidenced by their run of under 4.5 cards in each of their last 10 games, with solid tackling wherein they win 67% of the battles. Effective at winning duels, disrupting opposition play has been the stock-in-trade of Nantes.

Nantes will try to dominate the game through their dynamic 4-2-3-1 formation. Focus will be given to press high against Angers and utilize the strong wide play for them; there might be a high number of crosses that will keep coming from both flanks. That is one of the strong points for Nantes, building from the front with an early goal, which they will look to do in this game. They will try to stamp their authority on the match with a good midfield pairing that will outmuscle Angers' in the middle of the park both in creativity and solidity at the back.

Nantes will further exploit Angers' weak defense through their flanks, and the high pressing may lead to mistakes by Angers' defenders, who this season have shown lapses in concentration. Considering Nantes' ability in aerial duels, set-pieces may be a key source.

Traditionally, Nantes have been dominating head-to-head matches against Angers. Out of 20 previous matches, Nantes won 11 times, Angers were successful just 4 times, while 5 games ended in a draw. According to the latest head-to-head statistics, there was an evident trend:

This is further extended by the fact that Nantes remain unbeaten in the last 8 matches against Angers, extending the dominance into the current year.

Nantes have won the last three matches played consecutively against La Rochelle. This includes the recent 1-0 win in the July 2023 pre-season friendly.

Angers have not scored in their last 3 meetings with Nantes, which again shows the extent to which Angers find it hard to break down the defense of Nantes.

This is likely to be a tactical affair as Angers will try to hold Nantes' attacking play while looking for breaks with quick counters. However, boosted by a better head-to-head record, Nantes are likely to go into the match in high spirits and better form. Angers would be more cohesive and creative for a result to be secured, but Nantes' quality and consistency make them favorites to come away with the points or at least a draw in a tight, low-scoring encounter.

With Nantes in good form and Angers on a disastrous run of results, the chances of Nantes winning, or at the very least not losing, are high. Nantes have avoided defeat in their last eight clashes with Angers, including three successive victories to give them a clear psychological advantage.

Goals have been pretty scarce in recent head-to-head meetings between both teams. Their last five matches have produced less than 2.5 goals. Angers have managed to score only once in the last couple of games, while Nantes have been fairly sound defensively. This match has the makings of a tight, low-scoring affair.

It will also be noted that Nantes have opened the scoring in nine of their last ten matches, while Angers have fallen behind in all ten of theirs this term. With such form, Nantes are likely to break the deadlock in the first half, putting Angers on the back foot.

• Away Win/Draw & Under 3.5 Goals 1.727 Odds
• Away DNB @ 1.65 Odds
• Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.66 Odds